The Study About The Model Of Allocation Of BOT Project's Risks

As enter the 21st century, the national economy is developing rapidly, which is the basic project of national economy and social development, the development of infrastructure and construction has gradually presented an weakness condition, due to the government financial resources, technical and management capacity, and many other constraints. As an advanced and efficient infrastructure financing model, the BOT become very popular in the word own to its own unique advantages. However, compared with other general projects , the BOT project face more complex risk, during to the large amount of investment in infrastructure, the long building time, involving many participants and the high cost of financing and so on. the BOT financing structure is more complex than other projects.The entire process of building BOT projects are risk, whether we can identify the risks that existed in the project effectively and divide them reasonable between various participants is the key to the success of BOT projects, the most difficult and important problem is the risk that divided between various participants in the study of risk management which has received people's wide attention gradually. The research is about to the issue of allocation of risk in BOT project , which are mainly referred to the general analysis and classification, or do some discussion and regulations of qualitative sharing mechanisms about allocation of risks at home and abroad. However neither in theory nor practice the study about the model of risk allocation is very limited, it will be the one of the most aspects in the study of theory and application of the future BOT projects, and the relative study in this text is significant.At first, this text proceeded from basic theories of the risk management of BOT project, introduced the concept of the BOT financing model, types, characteristics and the process of BOT project risk management, then established the aspect of this text after the reviewing of relevant risk management literatures came from home and abroad.Secondly, the common risk of BOT project is identified and classified, we established the risk framework of BOT project that consist seven major risk such as political risk, completion risk and other twenty-two categories of risk for the secondary such as sovereign risk, legal risk, interest rate risk. The main participants of BOT project including the risk allocation subject involved in the model is analyzed, categorized and explained in detail, so as to the participants of the project can have a preliminary understanding about the risk in BOT project and their partners. The major principles of risk allocation that involved in the current risk allocation study are summarized, we find the common and major aspects through analyze. Four major risk allocation principles such as risk allocation's control principle and the lowest risk cost principle are extracted, providing the theoretical basis for the design of risk allocation Satisfaction Index System.Thirdly, on the base of current academic's relative study about the influence factor on the risk allocation, the two evaluation system about the influence factor on risk allocation satisfaction is established through case summary and data analysis combined with the principle of risk allocation. An evaluation index system including three categories of the ability to take risks, accept the risk of price, perceive risk level, Two evaluation indicators include nine sub-indexes such as the strength of its participants, the project expected return, and analysis of each of the indicators, provide accurate and reliable evaluation index system for the construction of the model. In the construction of the risk allocation model, deal with the construction evaluating indicator on the way of AHP and fuzzy overall evaluation method. At first construct the hierarchical structure of evaluating indicator of risk allocation satisfaction, and use AHP to determine weights of evaluation at all levels, then have a hierarchical fuzzy overall evaluation, finally obtain a overall evaluation results from participants'risk allocation satisfaction, select a party who have high satisfaction on risk allocation to bear risk, and as a basis for risk allocation between the various participants. Finally, summarize the conclusions and the shortcomings of this study, then point out directions of futher improvement and research.This text established risk allocation model of BOT project, the purpose is to make participants have a objective, controllable risks distribution criteria to reference when they have risk allocation talks, on the base of have a full understanding of the risk that exist in the project, they are according to the risk allocation model to make risk allocation decision. The model employs the fuzzy overall evaluation to analyze the degree of shareholders'satisfaction of taking the risks, and then decide who shall be the appropriate risk taker. This could solve the problems perfectly, which are caused by shareholders'dependence to qualitative analysis, the reliability and rationality of BOT are improved, the reliability and rationality of the risk allocation model were tested by experimental practice. But the author recognized that the process of BOT project risks allocation is a complicated system, how to design the BOT project's risk allocation satisfaction index system and using more appropriate index evaluate method to make project risk allocation more scientific and practical, need to further study.