Remote Sensing And Gis-based Analysis On Temporal-spatial Evolution And Forecast Of Land Use Change In Turpan City

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is the most obvious aspect of global change. The regional research about Land use change and its driving forces is an important part of global LUCC research. Monitoring and analyzing the land use space-time changes can better understand the change course and mechanism of land use. Meanwhile, through adjusting the economic activity of human society, impel the using of land more rationally, guarantee the pertinence, validity of the national macro strategic policy, thus achieve the purpose of sustainable utilization of land resource.On the base of the former achievements, by using of the remote sensing technology and geography information system,temporal-spatial characteristics of land use change for using three periods of remote sensing image 2000 ETM, 2005 CBERS-1and 2009 Rspid Eye in conection with particularity of climate as well as importance of economic gegraphical position in Turpan were analyzed systematically and synthetically in this paper. Meanwhile , the trend of land use in Turpan ,were foreasted by using Markov model,with their results given below:First,Accord with the feather of land use in Turpan city,the remote sensing image interpretation keys of six land use types(cultivated land,forest land, grassland,construction land,water area,unused land)were established in the paper.Second, Multi-resourses remote sensing was used to classify research. An integrative land use classification method was used to classify remote sensing images into land use map of each time(2000,2005,2009). Third,With the supporting of GIS technique,growth degree index and spatialanalysis model were used to analyze the dynamic evolution of urban land use change in Turpan with different scales.The results indicated that from 2000 to 2009,great change about land use had taken place in Turpan comparatively frequent, and the changes are intense. Fourth,Dynamic change of land use in Turpan was forecasted by use of Markovmodel.In the following 9 years,the result show: The result of using Markov process to simulate land use in Turpan city was basic anastomose to parctical situation.