The Empirical Analysis Of Influential Factors Of Terms Of Trade In China

With the accelerated development of globalization, international trade business has beccome the most important impetus to the economic growth of each country. Terms of trade, as a crucial indicator of the change of a country's benefit from foreign trade, and whose change is deeply concerned by every government, has always been one of key study projects for modern economics.People have come to the agreement to the terms that foreign trade has boosted China's economy, however, we also face confusion:do we really benefit more in the process of different divisions among international communities? Each scholar has different points about this problem. Some of them think that China has already been the state of growth of poverty, the others holds opposite views. Therefore, this dissertation focuses on China's Net Barter Terms of Trade(NBTT). The subject of this thesis is the NBTT's change and its influential factors since the implement of China's reform and open-up policy. On the ground of my study, I forecast the developing trend of NBTT of China in the future.Three parts build up this dissertation:A brief comment on main theories about terms of trade is given at first. With analysis of weakness and sryength of China's foreign trade development and some data information, I conludes that the overall trend of China's NBTT is declining based on 1981-2008 data. Following both qualitative and quantitative analysis on influential factors of China's NBTT, the major findings from the study are:Industry Structrue(PRO) and Foreign Direct Investment(PT) are more important factors for NBTT, they effect each other. Commodity Structure of Export only effect NBTT, but NBTT can not. The economic growth has nothing to do with NBTT. At last, I give the suggestions about improving NBTT.