Optimal Allocation Of Regional Water Resources Based On Supply And Demand Coordination

It is very important and has theoretical meaning and practical value to study the optimal allocation of water resources with the increasingly severe problem of water resources. The optimal allocation of regional water resources was studied in this dissertation. The main contents were summarized as follows:(1)The existing research results of optimal allocation of water resources were summarized by consulting a lot of domestic and overseas literatures. The shortcoming of optimal allocation of water resources at present and the research tendency were pointed out based on the sustainable development theory and demand.(2)The content, methods and influence factors of regional water demand prediction were expounded. The grey GM(1,1) model based on Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO) was improved, the solution flow of the model was designed and the improved grey GM(1,1) model was practically applied to predict the social and economic indexes. The results showed that the improvement was reasonable. The buffer operator was introduced to pretreat original data for the purpose of discussing the consistency between qualitative analysis and quantificational calculating.(3)The concept, characteristic and significance about coordination between supply and demand have been analyzed. The notion of "Coordination Grade Between Supply and Demand " was introduced and one quantification method of that was suggested. The basic concept and principle of the optimal allocation of regional water resources were discussed. Taking month as temporal cell, the multi-objective model for optimal allocation of regional water resources was established. The recognition and measurement of social, economic and environmental benefit were studied in the model which is confined by the quantity of the possible water supply, the transportation ability from waterhead to users, the different needs of users, equity, sewage controling and so on. The realizing flow and computing programme of the model have also been designed based on Particle Swarm Optimization.(4)Zhengzhou city in Henan province was selected as the example to test the model and method presented above. Firstly, the parameters and schemes of this allocation model of Zhengzhou city were analyzed. Secondly, the model was analyzed according to the actual water consumption data of datum year (2003). Thirdly, the results of allocation with two probabilities of assurance in three planning standard years (2010, 2020 and 2030) have been obtained through solving the model. In addition, on the basis of analysis of these results, some countermeasures and advices were suggested, which lend themselves to rational exploiture and utilization of water resources of Zhengzhou city in the future. In conclusion, the model was proved reasonable and the method was relatively effective and the model could supply decision-making basis of the sustainable utilization layout for regional water resources.(5)Combined the theory and the application research results, the conculsion and some questions need to be studied deeply in the next work were presented.