Henan Province Shipping Water Demand Analysis And Forecasting Studies

The framework of planning development of the "Eleventh Five-Year" has been clearly put forward in our country that " to positively develop land and water transportation, and to accelerate improve inland navigation". The Ministry of communication views that "shipping is not only the advantage of achieving sustainable transport development, but also a positive measure for building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society. During the next five years it is necessary to speed up development of the shpping in a more important position, playing a good role in less occupying, polluted, and more transporting capacity". The adequacy of water resources is the key to the development of waterway transportation in Henan Province, and water demand is the main basis for water resources planning. It is important for the development of water carriage in Henan to affirm reasonable water demand. In this paper, the forecast of shipping water demand in Henan Province is given a systematic study, including the following five components:(1) Water transport in Henan Province takes more advantages than other means of transport. The concept of shipping water demand is put forward to analyze the difference with the concept of water demand of water resources. Existing problems of water demand prediction are analyzed rested on current water demand home and abroad.(2) Natural geography and social economy in Henan Province is given a brief introduction, so is water resources in Henan Province. The existing problems of water resources utility is put forward through analyzing.(3) Based on the analysis on water consumption in Henan Province, three methods of regression analysis, the gray system and drive factor are respectively used analyze and forecast water demand in Henan Province. The improved method of weighted processing is put forward on the basis of three methods mentioned above. Through error calculation to these methods, the results show that the improved method of error is small and the accuracy is high.(4) Through analysis on current situations in the basins of Guo River and Tuo River, utility of GIS software like ArcGIS to divide basin where Guo River and Tuo River channels cross, to calculate their water demand in the coming years. Through prediction of shipping water demand to the typical basin, combining the method of shipping water demand with ArcGIS technology, shipping water demand of navigation basin in Henan is calculated.(5) A total conclusion is done for the whole work in this study, including the fruits and innovations, and pointing out certain aspects to be further improved.