| Along with the rapid development of social economy, population growth, urbanizat io n process accelerated, increasing people’s standard of living and the gradual improvement of the ecological environment, all above of which has led to increasing water demand. Starting from the changing conditions, the research on the water demand and reasonable optimiza t io n al ocation of water resources is an effective way to solve this contradiction. The optimized al ocation of water resources is of great significance to promote regional coordinating sustainable development of society, economy, and environment.Based on the full collection and collation Yuyang District social economy and water resources development and utilization of information, this paper preliminarily proved water resource’s basic situation of Yuyang District, analyzed the water resources development, utilization situation and the existing problems. In addition, this paper this paper forecast the future water demand of Yuyang District mainly by ration method, and the forecast results are compared with grey model, regression analysis method of prediction, to further check the water demand prediction results. This paper constructed a multi-objective optimization model for al ocation of water resources in Yuyang area, and got the best solution of the optimal al ocatio n of water resources of Yuyang area. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The multi-year average precipitation in Yuyang District is 368.9mm. The surface water resource is 389 mil ion m3, and groundwater resource is 527 million m3. The total water resources is 681 million m3, in which 348 million m3 can be used. The per capita water resources of Yuyang District is only 1229 m3, uneven distribution, belongs to the water shortage area.(2) The total water consumption was 287 million m3 in Yuyang District in 2013,all of which supplied by surface water(191 million m3) and groundwater(96 million m3).Life, production, and the ecological water demands ratio is 6.5:92.6:0.9, and the agriculture water conservation was the most. Water resources development and utilization degree is 82.5%, reaching high utilization level.(3)Based on ration method, this paper predicted the water demand.In 2020, at 50%, 75% of the guaranteed rate, the total water demand reach 338 million m3, and 350 million m3. In 2030, at 50%, 75% guarantee rate, the total water demand were 451 million m3, 464 million m3. From water structure changes, urban domestic, secondary industry, tertiary industry and ecological water demand’s proportion of total water demand has shown a different amplitude increases, but agricultural water demand ratio decreases.(4)Grey model and regression analysis prediction method can be used in the water demand forecasting. Short-term water demand forecast results have little amplitude, but longterm forecast results appeared in the larger differences. The results are between linear model and quadratic polynomial model. What‘s more, grey model, exponential model and the ration method prediction results are close.(5) According to the basic situation and exploitation of water resources utilization structure, combined with water prediction results and future water supply project planning, the paper constructed the Water Resources multi-objective optimal al ocation model of Yuyang District. And the numerical results show that(P=75%): in 2020, on the basis of present water supply engineering, focusing on the recycled water and mine drainage dry water supply, Yuyang District volume of water shortage for 239.9 million m3, the rate of water scarcity is only 6.85%. In 2030,with the water supply of Yellow River Daquan diversion project, Yuyang district water shortage situation will be further eased and the rate of water scarcity reduce to 3.99%. |
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