Based On System Dynamics Of Commercial Real Estate Projects Of Economic Evaluation

Over the past 20 years, china's real estate by rapid development. Real estate can be divided into residential real estate and commercial real estate. Since 2002, china's industrial restructuring and the process of urbanization to promote the expansion of commercial real estate market demand ; expanding domestic demand, promoting the economic growth of consumption policies to expand commercial real estate markets ; real estate " New Deal " and " quota " macro - control policies also encourage developers to turn the new strategy of commercial real estate activity space. Commercial real estate in our country is in the middle of a high - speed development stage.However, commercial real estate operation is a systems engineering, commercial real estate projects have obvious differences and their development needs long time and investment, economic development and policy implications, the entire development process risk is greater than pure residential property projects. A large amount of capital into the commercial real estate in this field in recent years, Some cities even have surplus production capacity, under the impact of the financial crisis, increasing vacancy of commercial real estate projects and projects continue to death situation will also expose our business generally do not have a high level of investment decision in real estate investment fields, the many problems such as irrational investment and scientific decision - making.In this context, this system dynamics theory applied to the construction of commercial real estate project Economic Assessment study, the establishment of system dynamics simulation model of economic evaluation of commercial real estate projects. Vensim software for calculating the dynamic simulation of simulating the basic means of achieving quantitative analysis and prediction reflects the construction and operation of the commercial real estate project investment trend of micro - economic effects of various indicators, so as to grasp of commercial real estate project profitability, liquidity and uncertainty degree of impact factors on the economic viability of the project. And empirical analysis results show that the operability and reliability evaluation model with certain, provided some ideas for commercial real estate investors, methods and tools, but also for the sustained and healthy development of commercial real estate provided useful reference and reference.