China's Real Estate Market Of Non-equilibrium Statistical Analysis

The operation of social economy can be divided into two states: equilibrium and disequilibrium. The equilibrium of economics generally refers to Walras equilibrium, whose basic premise is that perfect market and price system exists, if the market is perfect and market information is integrated and clear, the price is agile and it adjusts with the change of the supply and demand, the demand and supply of commodities on the market are equal, the extra supply and demand will do not exist, which is an ideal state and is difficult to realize. While disequilibrium refers to the equilibrium on the condition that perfect market and agile price system do not exist, the disequilibrium of economics generally refers to Walras disequilibrium, which studies the social economics in the premise of presume, therefore, the study accords to reality.Disequilibrium econometric model develops on the basis of the theory of the disequilibrium and it supplies the effective tool to analyze the realism problem by using disequilibrium theory. According to the data analysis, we find that disequilibrium state is more protruding, the development of China's real estate market dose not escape the reality of the disequilibrium of supply and demand totality, the origination of real estate is late, the problem of disequilibrium is more prominent, and instability exits to some extent, thus, being formalistic is not perfect for analyzing Chinese market of real estate, and it must try to use disequilibrium theory to analyze Chinese market of real estate. It must indicate that the theory of equilibrium and disequilibrium are not opposite, and should integrate them, equilibrium is the objective of the economy operation, and disequilibrium analysis is the available means of realizing the objective of equilibrium.Firstly, the paper had a brief introduction on the theories of disequilibrium and real estate markets, and confirmed the choice of the disequilibrium econometrics model on the basis of the characteristics of the estate market of China. The paper made sure that the disequilibrium of Chinese estate market showed not only the disequilibrium problem of the total support quantity, but the problem of the structure and system of market. According to the classification of the statistics annals, the paper supposed the disequilibrium econometrics model of the estate market of China and made clear those relative variations, and got the final disequilibrium model of the estate market of China. On the analysis of the model , the paper drawn the conclusion that the price system of china turned up the temporary inefficiency. The theories of disequilibrium told us that market adjustment goes on with the adjustment both of the price and quantity. So the principal part of adjustment should be quantity adjustment, which means the importance of government adjustment. The analysis of the disequilibrium also told us that different estate products and the market structures showed different disequilibrium. The segmentation of macro-controlling can improve the macro-controlling effect and maintain the stable working of the disequilibrium of the estate markets.According to the analysis results of statistics data, the paper thinks that the macro-controlling emphasis should focus on the support controlling, esp., the controlling of the supporting of non-house products. And the problem is that what kind of macro-controlling can make the working of estate market go toward the equilibrium. The index of the disequilibrium degree got from the model calculation laid the foundation of quantitative analysis for us, which also can bring us the reference of the meaning and methods of confirming macro-controlling. The paper thinks that the method of direct macro-controlling should be used in the estate market of china, namely using the administrative methods and the method of law to standardize the market behaviors. Some of the policies and rules of the administration in our country bring the possibility of macro-controlling, which also means that it is definite that the government plays the key part of the controlling subject, when quantitative controlling stand ahead Anyway, on the basis of the analysis of the real estate market of China, the suggestions and the methods given by the paper are very effective, which provide a new method and idea of controlling and management to the stable working of the estate market.