Modeling And Analysis Of China's Energy Needs

Energy resources are essential for the development of human society. During the period of industrialization, the economic structure, city level, and the residents consume structure of China have changed a lot. The structure of the energy consumption and production also changed. With constant expanding of the economic scale of China, it gets more and more concern whether the future energy industry can support the speeding development of China's economy. Therefore, a well-designed strategy of energy development is critical to the healthy, stable and sustainable development of Chinese economy. Whereas the modeling and analysis of energy demand are the fundamental elements of energy exploitation strategy planning.The approaches, which have been applied in the modeling and analysis of energy demand before, are all based on the traditional modeling technology. An important assumption that time series data is stationary is necessary in the traditional modeling technology. In fact, energy time series is unstationary and non-linear. The attributes of unstationarity and non-linearity of the energy time series make the traditional modeling method of energy demand challenged.Therefore, based on the energy economical theory and foundation of the energy demand, Taking the unstationarity and non-linearity in the energy time series into consideration, this paper models and analyzes China's energy demand by using methodology of cointegration, semi-parameter regression model and error correction, putting forward two models of energy demand that are reasonable, efficacious and can be used for prediction. Moreover, we make a demonstration study on the influential factors of energy demand and then make a conclusion that there is a quantifiable relationship between the energy demand and its influential factors. Secondly, we compare the two models and conclude that non-linear model (semi-parameter regression model) has the non-linear impact of these factors but unconspicuous economic explaining performance, while linear model (cointegration model) has vivid economic explaining power but certain limitations. Therefore, they can be complementary in application. Finally, we summarize some modeling and analysis on the energy demands of China and put forward some proposals about the development of energy in China.