The Study On New Product Diffusion In The Competition Environment

In the current age, our product providers are faced with such a fiercer market competition. To achieve and keep competitive advantages over others, many companies apply themselves to new product development. And the success of new product development's symbol is new product going to market successfully. Thus, it is important of decreasing the failure ratio of new product going to market to predict the stuation of new product diffusion. Traditionally, Bass model is put forward to forecast the situation of new product diffusion to decrease the failure ratio of new product going to the market. Although Bass model describes and forecasts new product diffusion quite well, it is not fit to forecast new product diffusion in competitive market for the hypothesis of monopoly. Some models which are offered by some researchers, are also difficult to be used in practice because of their overabundance parameters. Hence, the study on new product diffusion in competition market is an important topic not only on a theoretical level but also in terms of practical work, and should be received more attention.Using theories and methods from different fields and combining forecast theoretical research and empirical research, this article explores on new product diffusion in the competition environment. On one hand, the article summarizes the basic theories and productions of new product diffusion, sums up the influence factors which affect new product diffusion, and introduces the function of customer choice to suggest the new product diffusion model in the competition environment. On the other hand, we design the forecast method and steps, which could be applied in practice, base on the thought of conjoint analysis. The article seeks to enrich the theory of new product diffusion, also expects to bring forward a new feasible method which can forecast new product diffusion in the competition market environment.Concerning the frame of the article, first, we summarize the relative theories of new product diffusion by reviewing many literatures. Second, we explore the key factor affected the new product diffusion. Then we suggest the new product diffusion model in the competition market environment and scheme out the method and steps of forecasting. Third, we take mobile telephone as an example, apply the diffusion model to describe the spreading process in market of mobile phone, assisting by the static's methods just as questionnaire research and the simulation of the market shares and so on. At last, limitations and further extensions of the study are discussed.