Major Projects In The Investment Decision-making Risk Management Theory And Application Of Research

Large projects contain many risk factors due to their own characteristics. A lot of plans of investment on large projects aborted because of ignoring the risk. Accordingly, this dissertation focuses on theoretic and applied research on risk management while deciding to invest on large projects. The concept of Shannon is introduced to this paper. It can be seen that Shannon is good method to manage risk, which is proved by the result of this paper.The dissertation is based on analyzing the choice of the plant site for a 1600000-ton / year MDI project invested by Yantai Wanhua Ltd. Stock Company. Firstly, theory of Shannon is introduced and then is discussed how to be used in risk estimating, risk evaluating and risk decision-making. Secondly, individual risk probability of three selectable plant sites is estimated by means of maximum Shannon rule. Thirdly, comprehensive attribute method and risk coefficient are used to comprehensively evaluate the risk of the three sites so as to identify key risk factors and evluate the whole risk probability. Fourthly, optimal scheme is selected via comparing schemes of the three plant sites through using investment model based on maximum Shannon rule. Lastly, measures to monitor and control risk consisting in this project are analyzed. Such conclusion can be made according to the prior analysis that Shannon theory can be introduced into risk management to estimate risk, appraise risk and make decision. Furthermore, the result of analysis on the project in the dissertation is is consistent with the fact, that is to say, choosing the Daxie Island, Ningbo as the plant site for the project accords with the conclusion of the paper.