Inbound Tourism Market In Shanghai Statistical Analysis And Forecasting Model

Since 1990's, the inbound tourism has been developed rapidly in Shanghai. In 2001, the number of tourists to Shanghai from abroad topped about 2 million for the first time, which means the inbound tourism in Shanghai has stepped into a new stage. With China entering WTO and Shanghai biding for the International Fair successfully, the city will be opened to the outside world further and will get more chances to propagate tourism and show itself. It's certain that the international tourism will continue to develop in Shanghai day by day, for government has begun to pay more and more attention to the development of tourism and has held great promise to it. Practical plans have been made, including a 3-year tourism plan, and a plan increasing the tourism plan, and a plan increasing the tourism multiply. Their purpose is to make Shanghai a well-known international city.The article studies the inbound tourism, mainly analyzing the current situation of it statistically. Based on it, various means of maths and analysis have been used to set up maths analytical models. Meanwhile, the article has tested and compared the models as well.There are five chapters here analyzing and researching on the inbound tourism market in Shanghai.Chapter I : IntroductionIt analyses the background, meanings, purposes, summaries, contents, methods and the limitation of the related key words and concepts.Chapter II: the statistical analysis about the current situation of the inbound tourism market in ShanghaiIt is the most important part of all, analyzing the structure of the tourism market from all aspects. In this part, some classified research has been done on maths and the indistinct maths has also been used to analyze the inbound tourism market in Shanghai.Chapter III: A summary of forecasting methodsThis part is an introduction of this method and the theoretical basis of Chapter IV.Chapter IV: Forecasting models for the number of the tourists from abroad in ShanghaiIt's one of the most important points. Statistics and the time series models are set up to number the tourists to Shanghai using the forecasting models in Chapter III.Chapter V: Conclusion and suggestionsThe new ideas the article brings forth are:Choose the inbound tourism which earns foreign exchange as its target.Make use of statistics in the research. It mainly uses the way of quantitative analysis and the supplementary way of qualitative analysis.The whole article emphasizes on maths logic with special angles of view. During the course of writing it, we can find changes step by step. By setting up statistical models, we will get to know more about the inbound tourism market and understand it better. But there are still some problems to be solved, such as how to measure the target , how to quantificate the qualitative target, how to modify the models and so on.These opinions need further discussion.