Land-island Ferry Passenger Development

With the development of the coastal islands, lots of land passages between mainland and island, such as bridges and tunnels are under construction, which influences the traditional waterway passenger transport. Firstly, before the land passage is completed, the burden of the waterway passenger transport gets heavier since the demand of the transport between mainland and island keeps increasing with the development of the economy and industry in island. Secondly, after the land passage is completed, the shunt of the passenger flow takes place because the land passage attracts part of the passengers who come-and-go between mainland and island. This brings the waterway passenger transport a strike. In order to make the traditional waterway passenger transport keep developing stably, this dissertation makes focus on the passenger flow and analyzes the trend of the waterway passenger transport development, it also discusses the subject of how to realize the stable development of the waterway passenger transport between mainland and island. The main research results are as follows:Firstly, according to the character of the waterway passenger transport system, it makes comparison between regression analysis exponential smoothing and gray prediction, and applies the gray model to predict the waterway passenger flow between mainland and island in the future.Secondly, on the basis of OD investigation, it applies the route cost-time model to analyze the shunt influence of the passenger flow caused by the land passage after it is completed. Furthermore, it studies the stable situation of the shunt influence with Markov analysis as well.Thirdly, it describes the trend of the waterway passenger transport development and divides the development course intothree phases.Finally, it puts forward the main solutions to realize the stable development of waterway passenger transport. One is to balance the supply and demand in the waterway passenger transport market. The other is to improve the competence of the waterway passenger transport by taking certain measurements.To sum it up, this dissertation is for reference to solve the similar problem in the future.Yue Ye (Engineering Economics and Management) Directed by Shou Jianmin...