Explore The Gray Prediction Method Of Public Sector Human Resource

The development of network technology and information technology upgrades the techniques and the methods of the management of public sector, and it also enables a new trend of human resources of the public sector. However, there are quite a few of defects in the modern human resources management of public sector. Therefore, the human resources management of public sector is encountered many new problems. Scientific and rational planning in human resources of the public sector is fundamental to the effective management of human resources, and is required for the management of human resources to adapt to the development of society, economy and management technology. The premise and basis of the planning of human resources in public sector is the prediction of human resources that at the same time is an important basis for decision-making in human resources. Therefore, the choice of prediction methods in human resources of the public sector directly affects the accuracy and reliability of the prediction, and affects the effectiveness of planning and decision-making in human resources of the public sector.On the prediction methods in human resources of the public sector, from the aspect of technical study, the current studies are more biased in favor of quantitative (a top down) research. And due to the specialty and complexity of the researching subjects in human resources of the public sector, with the insufficient statistical data and inconsistent statistics, the ordinary researchers mostly get the generalized prediction of human resources. If we intend to achieve the quality of human resources and the structure of the prediction, it is difficult to be relatively accurate and to get effective results with the existing data resources and a means of a top down qualitative research. Grey prediction method with its special researching subjects: "some of the information known, some unknown information" and "small sample", "poor information" of uncertainty, solves the problem of lack of information encountered in the prediction of human resources of China's public sector. Furthermore, it provides a new method and new research ideas in demanding prediction of human resources in the public sector on quantity and quality of the prediction capability, and it also provides an important basis for efficient allocation and management in human resources of the public sector.This paper includes the following aspects:First, it analyses the developing trends of the human resources of the public sector and the defects of current prediction methods in human resources of the public sector, providing a perfect program.Secondly, the analysis to theory and principle of human resources prediction provides a theoretical foundation and prediction theory for the prediction in human resources of the public sector.Thirdly, through the analysis to internal and external factors in the prediction in human resources of the public sector and the comparison between the common prediction methods and Grey prediction method, it comes to the conclusion that Grey prediction method has feasibility and advantages in the prediction in human resources of the public sector.Fourth, through the analysis to Grey prediction method, it concludes the problems of Grey prediction method in human resources of the public sector, and it provides several assumptions to solve the problems in view of the characteristics of the current structure of China's public sector.Fifth, through the analysis to the data and related elements of Grey demanding prediction, with the assumption conditions, it gets the solution idea of Grey prediction in human resources of the public sector.