The Impact Of Population Aging On Industrial Structure

The impact of the aging population is faced by the countries all over the world, while that of Shanghai has some specificity. The article will see Shanghai as an individual study. The research in the relationship between the aging of population and the change of the industrial structure is meaningful to the policy setting of the industrial adjustment.In China, while the economic level is relative higher among the country.the degree of the ageing population in Shanghai is much deeper, which means Shanghai is different from other regions that express "Getting old before getting rich".Therefore, it is profound meaningful to study the relationship between the ageing of population and the evolution of the industrial structure.In fact, the foreign relevant experiences, especially the case of a rapid population aging in Japan with a high speed development in the aging industry, have a direct guidance to Shanghai, which has the similar situation with these developed regions. As based on these characteristic of Shanghai, including the deep degree, the longer duration and the faster growth accompanied by the steady economy and revenue system, this paper, before the theoretical derivation and the empirical research, built the hypothesis that the proportion of the supply or demand and the total population is fixed, and that there would be a free labor flow among the industries. These premise conform to the actual situation of Shanghai, and on this basis, after the theoretical derivation, the paper proved that with the increase of the degree of the ageing population, on the demand side, the family endowment will gradually turn to the social endowment, prompting the needs of aging industry rising. On the supply side, while the total labor force is declining, the population proportion of the primary industry and the secondary industry will drop, and the proportion of the tertiary industry, especially the aging industry accompanied with the continuous demand driven, will rise, which will eventually change the industrial structure. It’s worth noting that the aging industry does not only mean the aged care, but also derived to the elderly tourism, the elderly supplies and something others.In addition, in this paper, the study found that the aging of population has a lag impact on the industrial structure. This hysteresis reflects on two points. One is that when the degree of the ageing population is lesser, the effect to the industrial structure is little. While the degree has exceeded a certain value, the effect will present an exponential growth. The other point is that, for Shanghai, which has entered the depth of the aging society, the change of industrial structure also presents an obvious hysteresis, which may be caused by the transition of the traditional ideas, the infrastructure construction and some other relevant factors.Hence, the paper draws the conclusion that the ageing population put the impact on the industrial structure through both the demand and supply side. In order to better to complete the transformation of industrial structure and to make the economy and the society stable, we must improve the infrastructure construction and the relevant policy in advance.