Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On Labor Participation Rate

With the disappearance of the Demographic Dividend,the government and the academic community are very worried about the reduction in the number of labor force.The working age population and labor force participation rate are the main factors that affect the number of labor force.As for the former,the two-child policy and delayed retirement have become a hot spot of recent research,but not enough attention to the latter.In recent years,China's aging population and the labor force participation rate showed a trend of High-Low.According to statistics,it is expected that by the year 2050,the proportion of the aged 65 and above will break through 25%,and labor force participation rate will fall to 60%.It can be seen that the continuous aging of the population structure and the constantly decline in the labor force participation rate have a long-term trend.There is no doubt that the deepening of population aging will reduce labor force participation rate,but the degree is not enough.Other researches such as economic development level,social security level and other factors on labor force participation rate are not detailed enough.Therefore,this paper will study the relationship between population aging and labor force participation rate.The analytical framework of this article is as follows: First,on the basis of summarizing the classic theories of labor supply and population aging and other related theories at home and abroad,and combined with economic factors,human capital related factors and institutional factors,the theoretical analysis framework of this paper is established.Secondly,it analyzes the population aging,the characteristics and changes of labor force participation rate in G20 countries and China by using relevant information.Then,through the agestandardization and regression analysis,the impact of the population aging on the labor force participation rate in G20 countries and China is analyzed.Finally,combined with the estimated results of G20 countries and China,we find out the universality and particularity of labor market and its influencing factors under the background of aging population in China,and put forward the countermeasures to adjust labor force participation rate to adapt to the future development of our country.The conclusions are as follows: First,we standardized the labor force participation rate of G20 countries by using the age-standardized method and Japan's Old Age Standard Population Structure.We found that aging of the population structure will lead to 11.29% decrease in China's labor force participation rate and the most negative impact in G20 countries.Second,G20 and China's empirical results show that: the aging of population is negatively correlated with labor force participation rate,but further research finds that the negative impact of high-income countries is significantly weaker than that of middle-income countries,and has no significant impact on the countries not aging.Third,the economic related factors play a positive role in the labor force participation rate,so promoting the economic development is an important means to improve the labor force participation rate.Fourth,there is a negative correlation between the total fertility rate and labor force participation rate in China.There is a positive correlation between the social security level and the labor force participation rate,which indicates that the current social security system in China is not perfect enough,which has affected the improvement of the fertility level and the improvement of employment level.Fifth,higher education level and the labor force participation rate is U-shape relationship,and the level of higher education in China is estimated the absolute value of coefficient is less than G20,indicating that the current higher education level and G20 of our country average level disparity is obvious,so the future of how to promote the high-quality development of higher education for national economic and social development is extremely important.Sixth,there is a positive correlation between the trade openness and labor force participation rate,which is contrary to the estimated results of G20 countries.In order to alleviate the decline trend of China's labor force participation rate under the background of aging in order to adapt to the development of the future society,we can start from the following four points: One is to promote economic development to a new level,and promote the increase of resident income.The two is the implementation of delay retirement policy,accelerate the construction of social security system.The three is to promote the quality of higher education development,to provide adequate intelligence support.Four is to actively implement the two-children policy,improve the relevant supporting measures.