The Influence Of Population Ageing On Economic Development In Jilin Province

Population ageing is a common problem facing many countries in the world in the 21st century.It is manifested by the increasing proportion of the elderly population and the aging of the population's age structure.It is the result of continuous economic and social development.Since Jilin Province entered an aging society in 2003,the aging of the population has continued to deepen.Along with aging,there has been a serious problem of declining birthrate,which has deepened the aging process and seriously affected the age structure of the population of Jilin Province.It has a profound impact on all aspects of economic and social development,and it is necessary to correctly understand the aging situation of the population in Jilin Province and its impact on economic development.This article first analyzes the economic situation of Jilin Province from the aspects of GDP scale and growth rate,per capita GDP,and the three major industrial structures.It is found that the economic development rate of Jilin Province has slowed down significantly since 2012.Both the scale of GDP and the growth rate are at a lower position in the country,and the industrial structure is unreasonable.The economic conditions are relatively backward compared with the national level,and the economic growth momentum is obviously insufficient.In terms of population size,the total population of Jilin Province has been declining since 2012,and the natural growth rate of the population has been negative for the first time in 2016.In terms of the age structure of the population,the birth rate in Jilin Province has been maintained at a low level,and the proportion of children and adolescents has been declining year by year,which is manifested in the serious problem of low birthrate.The proportion of the elderly population has been increasing year by year,which is manifested in the serious problem of ageing.Based on the VAR model,this paper analyzes the relationship between population aging and economic growth from 1995 to 2015,and finds that the aging of population in Jilin Province has a restraining effect on economic growth.According to the statistical yearbook and other data,the aging of the population in Jilin Province also has an impact on the supply of labor,consumption,investment and pension security:it is affected by the aging of the population and the increase in the degree of low birthrate.The changing trend of the working-age population and its proportion in Jilin province showed an"inverted U-type" curve.After reaching its peak in 2010,the number of working-age people in Jilin province has been declining,resulting in a significant lack of endogenous power in economic development.The aging of the population restricts the improvement of labor productivity in Jilin Province,which in turn affects the quality of labor supply;There is a significant negative correlation between population aging and consumption level in Jilin province,that is,population aging restricts the improvement of consumption level and brings changes in consumption structure.Population aging has a certain correlation "with investment level,which has brought about a decrease in total investment;The aging of the population has increased the social and family pension pressure.In recent years,the pension insurance fund in Jilin Province has shown that it is "not enough to make ends meet" and is faced with huge financial risks.At the same time,the increase in the elderly population has created a strong demand for health insurance and social welfare,which has led to a significant increase in social spending on health insurance and social welfare and has increased the burden on social security.Based on the above empirical analysis results,it is proposed that we should promote economic development and provide a solid material basis for coping with population aging.To formulate appropriate population policies to encourage and safeguard reproductive behaviour;We will make full and rational use of the human resources of the elderly population and increase the supply of social labor force.We will vigorously develop the old-age industry to boost investment and consumer demand.We will improve the social security system,speed up the construction of the old-age pension and medical care systems,and jointly face the adverse effects of the aging population on the economy of Jilin Province,and promote the sound and rapid development of the national economy.