| Crude oil is the major source of energy for modern industry to provide essential raw materials, fluctuations in the price of profound affects macroeconomic aspects. Further, due to the different industrial sectors, the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on various industries are also different. At the same time, between the various industries with endogenous links can not be observed directly, study on the crude oil price fluctuations such exogenous shocks is how the industry connection between industries conduction is valuable.In this paper, with the help of GVAR model, in order to strengthen the high-end manufacturing industry in May 8,2015 announced the "China made 2025" national strategic planning proposed by the ten major industries as an example. Theory with practice, the relationship between specific industries and the impact of crude oil price shocks is how to conduct an analysis. Analysis results show that significant endogenous relation exists between the various industries, industry impact through these links fast in inter industry conduction, manifested in the form of a variety of spillover effects. Through further research, we can find exogenous shocks is along a relatively fixed endogenous path gradually broadcast and affects all industries, but and the impact of different, exogenous shocks tend to have more significant time lag effect, the path generally speaking through the industrial chain by the upstream industry gradually to the downstream industries conduction. Therefore, in the formulation of relevant policies, should fully take into account the impact of inter industry links and external shocks of the transmission mechanism in order to achieve better policy results.The empirical study on the global vector autoregression model (gvar) is in the classical VAR method based on extended to the new model can be used to analyze the mutual economic relations between different regions or industries. It will be the area or industry VECMX model through mutual connection weight matrices are connected, so model variables between long-term and short-term relationships and dependencies can see, so the short-term relationship between economics theory in long-term relationships and the data generating process can statistical test through the consistent model framework. Compared with the traditional SEM based macroeconomic model, GVAR model has a clear economic theory, compact structure, easy to maintain and extend the features of the model, and it is also very good. So it has strong theoretical and practical value to analyze the influence of crude oil price to each industry and industry by using GVAR model.The full text is divided into five chapters, the first chapter introduces the research background and significance of this paper, and expounds the main innovation of this paper. In the second chapter, combined with the previous research results and theory, this paper systematically introduces the influence of crude oil price on China’s economy. The third chapter is a detailed description of the GVAR model and the software analysis tool used in this paper. In the fourth chapter, the paper introduces how to construct the GVAR model of the industry and the choice of model variables. In the fifth chapter, the conclusion of the model simulation is analyzed, and the possible ways of further development and the deficiency in the empirical process are put forward. |
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