| The advancement of science and technology promotes optimization of industrial structure in our country, improves economic performance and the overall development of the society. In the 21th century, the man faces the challenge of knowledge-based economy and the progress of science and technology, and through further amalgamation with industry, science and technology play more and more important function. Especially the rapid development of information industry has already become the backbone industry of developed country in the world, plays the more and more important function to the economic growth. After more than 10 years of reform and opening, particularly during 9th five-year plan, information industry in our country has obtained the world-noticed achievement that goes at the speed of 3 times higher than the national GDP. In 2000, the production of electronics information industry broke one hundred million dollars for the first time in our country, and came to 1.35 hundred million dollars in 2001. The information industry has already grown up to the main industry for the national economy, the contribution rate to the national economy attained 6.08% above. The 16th congress put forward that with persistence information-based to drive industrialization and the industrialization to promote information-based, our country will walk a new industrialization road. The new science and technology revolution immit new content to industrialization, we must drive industrialization with information-based and carry out the span development of the information industry. But we are also sober to realize that the competition of the integrative national strength is the talent competition. The our country is in the key of the quick development period of economy, the biggest factor that restricts the information industry development is the information talent problem, therefore, strengthening to predict information science and technology talented person's supply seemed to be importance and urgent.Given it, many domestic scholars composed the article one after another to report the problem of the supply situation of talent person in our country, and put forward the homologous countermeasure. Most articles say that in our country the number ofthe talent supply generally is smaller than need, do not enumerate the detailed data to take into the elucidation, lack the stronger conviction, importantly do not analyze the reason of unbalance on supply and need deeply, and lack analysis in the dynamic angle. This text thinks that the reason that results in talent problem is numerous. Through careful analysis to the development process and the reason, we can not only judge our country talent problem objectively, but also can give decision reference to the decision sector.From the two sides of supply and need, this text insist to use the historical, logical standpoint to treat and analyze problem, run the whole text through history, present condition and future. With our country' s macro economy change for the background, we can investigates the condition of the talent: First, it looks back several big theories related with the talent, does a corresponding comment, and find out the theories reference for the analysis of the text. The next, in the foundation of clarifying the information talent meaning, it analyze our country information talent' s quanti ty % behavior, character and structures and the dynamic development of the supply and need, at the meantime thorough deep analysis to the factors that influence the information talented person supply and need condition, it thinks the supply characteristic of the information talented person is: the total amount is increasing and amplitude is claim, the quality improves, the behavior market promote gradually. The demand characteristic of the information talented person is: The demand increases and amplitude raises; The demanding industrial structure gets the improvement: Again, from the total amount and the structure side to analyze reason and the influence factors of information talent's unbalance in our country, it think the characteristic of the supply situation is the shortage of total amount and structure missing coexist; From the factor of supply, the education scale is so small that it result in the supply of information the talent is smaller than demanding; From the factor of demand, the fast development of the information industry is the main reason of that result in the unbalance; Finally, it make use of the gray system theory to build up two models to predict talented person the supply-demand situation respectively of 2003-2008 years, and aimed at this kind of condition build up anevaluation index sign to analyze reason. In the last chapter, this text put forward the related policy, suggestion about how to speed the information talent's development. |
