The Core Enterprise Of The Supply Chain Risk Prediction And Avoidance

Today economy becomes globalization. For a better development, companies must break traditional thought about regions, industries and companies. Companies should look for supply chain partners to maximize the validity of production. There are uncertainties in each level of supply chain. They are the main causes of supply chain management difficulties. Risk in the supply chain is the most difficult problem.In this thesis, forecast and evade of supply chain risk from strategy cooperation and changing of demand has been made.In the part of cooperation forecasting, Rough Set Theory is been used. According to historic information and proper model, the level of risk is been forecasted. And base on the different kind of risk factor, evading has been made.In the part of demand changing risk forecasting, the shortage of Time Series Modeling and other traditional demanding forecasting method is been described. And compared with this, CPFR, a new business model, has been introduced. Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) where manufacturers, distributors, and retailers jointly work together to plan, forecast, and replenish products. While resilience upon some form of communications media is an obvious aspect of any CPFR initiative, all too often the network infrastructure is not adequately considered and the effectiveness of the CPFR initiative suffers.At the end of the thesis, after analyzing a successful case which used the CPFR, processes of using CPFR for the current Chinese Companies and some advices have been given.