Aviation Project Risk Assessment

Like other complicated high-tech projects, aviation project demands high innovative;heavy investment and long research period. Various risks are inevitable in every single stage of aviation project. They must be handled carefully, otherwise the project will suffer a fatal loss. Therefore, it is very important and quite necessary to evaluate and assess risks of aviation projects. Based on the characteristics of Aviation projects, this dissertation mainly focuses on the research of risk evaluation methods of aviation projects. In this dissertation, the main risks in aviation projects and the relations among these risks were analyzed, the risk evaluation process model was established applying to the aviation projects, the risk probability and risk effect estimation methods based on Fuzzy Mathematics were proposed, comprehensive risk evaluation technique was researched, and the prototype system was designed and developed.The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:1. Risks analysis and establishing model of risk evaluation process. Firstly, the risks of aviation project are analyzed deeply, including their characters, relationship, and classification. Then, the risk evaluation process model is established to apply in aviation projects.2. Single risk evaluation methods of aviation projects. Firstly, the feasibility of current single risk evaluation methods in aviation projects is discussed. Then, based on likelihood distribution, a new risk probability estimation method is proposed to assess probability of risk occurrence in aviation projects, and a new risk effect estimation method based on fuzzy comprehensive decision method is proposed to assess the effect on aviation project. Finally, the risk degree is present as the criterion of risks sorting.3. Comprehensive risk evaluation methods of aviation projects. Firstly, based on the truth that risks effect on project can be transformed to schedule risk with some formats, an idea that the probability of schedule risk can be regarded as guide line of project whole risk is proposed. Then, a new comprehensive risk evaluation method based on improved-PERT is proposed to evaluate project whole risk-level. Finally, the step and techniques relatively of this method are deeply studied.4. System realization and validation. For examining the ideas and methods proposed in this dissertation, a web-based risk evaluation sub-system which using ASP.NET(C#) and SQL Server techniques is designed and developed. At last, some aviation project is introduced as an example to demonstrate the process and validity ofmethods proposed in this dissertation.