Mineral Rights Value Of The Discounted Cash Flow Method Based On The Average Rebound Process Of Assessment

The mineral resources is the mankind's precious wealth and the material foundation of the civilization essential to have. its quantity is limited which distributes very unbalanced and can't be reborn. How to use it and to keep it developing are very important.The mineral industry power which is the parties livings from the mineral resources ownership is the right to carry on investigate and mining to the mineral resources. looking for the scientist methods and using them to give a Quotation to The mineral industry power is the foundation of property management and realizations' development. it has the important theories and realistic meanings to attain the national economy to keep developing healthy and fast because of it providing the material guarantee for the national economy.Currently, the main methods of the mineral industry power valuation for the domestic and international are: Discounted Cash Flow, Comparable Market Values, Perambulate Cost Multiple, Geology Compositor etc. The different selection of the methods to usually be decided by the valuation stage, For mining stage, the most wide and mature method is the Discounted Cash Flow. Comprehensiving the consideration to the research and the actual of the Discounted Cash Flow is used to assess the valuation of mineral title. The key factors are how to select the discount rate, how to compute the mineral mountain service time and the clean cash discharge. The selection of the discount rate can be according to "Capital Asset Pricing Model, Weighted Average Cost of Capital, social average income"etc. the assurance of the mineral mountain service time isusually to adopt" the Taylor's rule" etc. But the most important and difficult to assurance factor of them is the clean cash discharge, the reason is that it must be considered of the cash flows and the cash drains.The clean cash discharge is equal to the result of deducting the cash drains the from the cash flows, the cash flows include the product sale income, recovery surplus of fixed assets, recovery surplus of current assets etc;The cash drains include the capital construction investment, the management cost and the flows funds, the income tax, the resources tax and the resources compensation etc. among of them, the management cost is the total cost expenses to deduct the depreciation, amortization charge and maintenance cost and the interest of the funds. After that the clean cash discharge of subtracting again the average investment income of the mineral industry property of cash discharge is just the cash discharge that being used in the assessment of mineral title. But in the process of actual valuation, the most hard assurance is the price of the mineral article. the price motion ranges usually very greatly, and has very strongly rove around sex random. the mineral price of article relates to how to assurance the product sale income, the income tax and so on. So while computing the clean cash discharge , the key lies in the assurance of the mineral price of article. In the traditional valuation method, people generally use one fixed price or with measuring the price of the first 5 years compute the other price of the sixth year , then using this price compute the whole income .Although these way of doings go in brief and easily, the results is usually very different from the fact.With carrying on the sex and special of the price, The thesis puts forward some related theories to estimate the mineral product price for example the ARMA method, the gray system theory,theMorkov method. In the studying of these methods, the thesis certains that the Morkov method can be mostly used to estimate the mineral product price. Generalized Wiener Processes can be used to estimate the short-term estimation, but at the long-term estimation of the mineral price, the Average Rebound Processes can be used to estimate the process, in the thesis, the athour has studied the process and predict the model emulation mineral price of article in the adoption mineral price of article, discounted the clean cash discharge, assessed the valuation of the mining title using the Discounted Cash Flow.On the foundation that the theories has studied, the thesis carried on the one iron mine of Yunnan province. It gived the application of the necessity to opencast the research to the mineral product price, at the same time verified the rationality and the possibility of using the Average Rebound Processes to estimate the mineral product price. The thesis Provided the foundation reference for the reasonable application that mines for minerals to use the Discounted Cash Flow method in the power value valuation, particularly it provided the basis for the reasonable estimate mineral product price, the accurate assess of the clean cash discharge, thus authenticated scientific the value of mining for minerals .