Environmental Impact Assessment For Baoshan Regional Planning By Using System Dynamics

With the accelerated process of urbanization, resources and environment has become the constraints of further development of China's big cities, most cities developed with unsustainable resources and deterioration of ecological environment. And these issues are closely related with the overall urban planning. Therefore, from the perspective of resource utilization and environmental protection, fully demonstrated the reasonableness of the overall urban planning, and make optimization recommendations to guide the preparation of the next level of planning and implementation of the overall plan of the city is called planning environmental impact assessment.However, planning environmental assessment in China is still a relatively new field, the relevant theoretical approaches and applied research is still in its infancy. Construction project environmental impact assessment, more emphasis on the control of point, lack of the link with the overall carrying capacity, could not make an accurate assessment of the overall urban planning in large-scale space and long cumulative time. Environmental impact prediction analysis is one of the very important part of regional planning EIA, the reliability of the forecast will directly effect of the reliability of the final evaluation. Therefore, how to more objectively and accurately predict the environmental impact is a question worth exploring. For the Master plan of the town, since the planning and implementation process of the environmental impact has characteristics as long time, multi-level, high-order nonlinear, dynamic, and self-organization and so on, it is difficult to use ordinary mathematical methods to describe and quantify their analysis.This requires the use of both a macro decision-making capacity and focus on the overall system architecture, but also to grasp the dynamic development of the system analysis method, and system dynamics in this regard has an unparalleled advantage.With the integrated development of Cities in the Yangtze River Delta, the development strategy focus of Shanghai shift to the suburbs from the city center. Baoshan district has gradually become the ease direction of population, industries and other main functions of Shanghai. During such process, the need for timely and reasonable assessment of the plan is necessary to meet the character of "planning early, rapid change" status of urban development.This paper relies on a project supported by Environmental Protection Bureau of Baoshan District, Shanghai, named "Baoshan District Regional Planning Environmental Impact Assessment". On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the status of social, economic, energy resources, environmental conditions and the integrated plans and their implementations, using system dynamics, a complex system of the Baoshan District is divided into four subsystems: population, economy, resources and the environment, to establish their mathematical models and finished model simulation. After the verification of the validity of the model, followed by scenario analysis, through the implementation of the regional planning, the dynamic simulation of planning predicted the environmental impact analysis. In the process of scenario analysis, targeted change the model variables to optimize the planning program. Which provide scientific basis for the twelfth five-year-plan of Baoshan District to realize the sustainable development of social economic, population, resources and environment.