Based On Systems Dynamics Regional Planning Environmental Effect Assessment Method Research

At present, the plan environmental evaluation work is at the start stage, related research many stresses in the fundamental research aspect, the empirical study are few, has not formed the unified methodology system. In the plan environmental effect appraisal's computing technique's flaw is restricts the plan environmental evaluation work development the important attribute. In the plan environmental evaluation work process, should unify the realistic national condition and the basic state policies request, establishes our country's plan environmental evaluation theory and the methodology system, instructs the plan environmental evaluation work science, to develop effectively.The systems dynamics combined the system analysis with the system synthesis, and conducted the research to system's complex questions. Through the expert group's qualitative system analyzed, the system structure model was established, the relationship among each factor was mathematic described, and then through the simulation, the overall mathematics description was realized, and interacted with the expert repeatedly to achieve the system synthesis and to realize from qualitative to the quantitative Meta-synthesis.In this paper, according to the systems dynamics principles, the system dynamic simulation model of the social economy and ecological environment in Fengman District was constructed, controlled and scenario analyzed using the software VENSIM-PLE. Fengman Economics & Technology Development District was divided into three sub-systems: social economy, resource and environment, and the mathematical model was established. After confirmed the model's validity, the model was simulated, and the policy variance was target-oriented changed simultaneously. The result indicated that the environmental effect planned could be accepted by the district, and the plan program is reasonable. Furthermore, the applicability of this method showed that the systems dynamics was a better method with many benefits and application values in the environmental impact assessment.