Study On Development Strategy Of Passenger Transportion System In Jining Urban Area

Jining city as the center of the Huaihai economic zone,has a unique geographical advantage.The prosperity of it concerns the development of its adjacent cities.In recent years,Shandong Provincial Government and Jining Government have issued a series of plans which set to enhance the competitiveness of jining.In the plans,the strategic to further enhance the gathering and radiation function of the central city of Jining is especially important.In order to achieve the goal,Jining has to strengthen the supporting and leading role of the traffic.So studying on the passenger transportion system of Jining has great significance.In this paper,the system dynamics method is used to establish the model of urban passenger transport system.Then use the model to simulate the development policy of the transportation system in order to make reasonable and feasible development strategies.Firstly, identify the issues of the study,and then analysis the applicability of the system dynamics method.Then briefly describe the theory and characteristics of system dynamics and the stages of modeling.Secondly, analysis the elements that the system contains and the relationship between each other. On the basis of it,build the causal relationship map between relevant variables, and then analysis the feedback system between the main factors.Thirdly,construct system flow diagram of passenger transport system of Jining, quantify the relationship among the elements with the structural equation, determine the value of the parameters according to statistical data, predict the future evolutive value of the parameters with a variety of methods.Finally,use the system dynamics model to simulate.Compare the output results produced by historical data with the actual data.Analysis the problems in every subsystem,propose the changes value of the elements.Then use the system dynamics model to simulate the impact of policy variables changing on traffic structure and the traffic state on the road.The results are superior to before.On the basis of it,propose development strategies of the passenger transport system in Jining.