Study On Labor Capacity Of Planting Farmland In Chengdu City And Factor Analysis

Chengdu City, as the Comprehensive Reform of Urban-Rural Experimental Zone, proposed to speed up shifts the rural labor force, reducing the number of the peasants, increasing resource possessive amount of the country dwellers, realize the good interaction between industry and agriculture, between urban and village. Based on land capacity theory, theory of scarce resources and space labor capacity theory, taking planting farmland labor capacity of Chengdu City as the research object. The study analyze the planting farmland labor capacity and the influence factors. Then we created the model to propose the stand planting farmland labor capacity, which supply the theory base and reference for the labor reasonable distribution and transfer surplus labors. At last, we put forward some suggestion to boost labor reasonable distribution. Results showed that,(1)Farmland refers to the land to plant crops, being consistent of rice, wheat, rape and vegetables. In 2009, the sown area of these four kinds of plants account for 72%of the whole sown area. Through the field investigation, amount of labor used each hectare of rice, wheat, rape and vegetables in Chengdu in 2009 are 104.61 days,86.06 days,141.61 days respectively. Through summating and averaging the amount of labor used each hectare of vegetables from'National agricultural product cost benefit material assembly' we got the amount of labor used each hectare of vegetables is 520.07 days.(2)According to the Man-days calculation method, we designed the model of planting farmland labor capacity in Chengdu. Through the calculation, the average increased reduction in distance (△mⅰ) of planting farmland labor capacity in Chengdu is-0.06 people in/ha, (rice),-0.02 people in/ha, (wheat),-0.05 people in/ha, (rape). An average annual labor capacity per unit area (m1 in each plants is 0.58 people in/ha, (rice),0.45 people in/ha, (wheat),0.62 people in/ha, (rape). Prediction model (Mⅰ) of labour capacity per unit area in each plants was Mrice=0.58+(±0.06·t) people in/ha, Mwheat=0.45+(±0.02·t) people in/ha, Mrape=0.62+(±0.05·t) people in/ha, t is time interval(year) between forecasting year and the base year, the average increase reduction in distance of the labour capacity per unit area before base year is positive value, but after base year, it was negative. Results showed that the model has stronger practicability due to the average error of crop cultivation in Chegndu in 2004-2009 was within 5%.(3)Based on the forecasting model of planting labor capacity, we designed the forecasting model of farmland labor, L=∑Mⅰx Sⅰ(L is predicted value of planting farmland labor capacity, Sⅰis sown area). The predicted value of planting farmland labor capacity in Chegndu in 2004-2009 was 83.98 million people,83.74 million people,73.32 million people,70.52 million people,68.85 million people,68.21 million people. Error rate between predicted value and actual value was less than 6%, which means the model was practical. Planting farmland labor capacity in Chegndu in 2010 is predicted, the result is 66.18 million people. At the same time, the predicted value decreased with the year increasing, but the proportion of planting farmland labor capacity and the first industry professionals have a slight increase. Planting farmland labor capacity account for 40%of the first industry professionals. The result showed that the farmland labor ability of absorbing to the labor force was limited, in which 60%of the first industry professionals conduct Forestry and animal husbandry fishery.(4) Qualitative and quantify analyze planting farmland labor capacity in Chengdu City from the land use structure and agricultural mechanization. From the analysis of land use structure, the result show that the change of planting farmland structure and agricultural acreage have a direct influence on planting farmland labor capacity. Regard to the influence of agricultural mechanization, there are a strong vicarism between agricultural mechanization and farmland labor. From 2004 to 2009, due to the agricultural mechanization improved in Chengdu City, the farmland labor saved separately 48425 person,49089 person,53737 person,54636 person,63301 person,67830 person.