| Based on the theory of Environment Kuznets Carve (EKC), the relationships between industrial pollutant and economy were investigated.The quantitative and qualitative methods were employed to establish the models industrial pollutants from the standpoints of its generation, abatement, and discharge. The model made the theory of EKC more systemic, concrete, and more directive significance to solve the practical problems. Moreover, the industrial plans, which could be beneficial to economy development and industrial pollutant abatement, were suggested according to analysis the economy development and industrial pollutant of 31 cities and 39 industrial departments.(1) Base on the early researches on the relationship between environment and economy, the new theory models on the relationships between industrial pollutant and economy were established according to the economic data, industrial pollutant generation, and abatement and discharge data in 1990 to 2008 of China.(2)Base on the establised theory models,31-city nationwide and 39-industrial departments were separately classified into five and three kinds according to the industrial pollutant and economy characters(3) According to the empirical study of the relationship between urban industrial pollutants and economy, some results could be shown as follows:①The relationship between industrial waste water discharge and GDP in all cities were in decline trendecy of "inverted U" and with a balance stage of EKC later. The GDP of turning point of industrial waste water discharge was "first kinds city< second kinds city<third kinds city< fifth kinds city<fourth kinds city". The balance points of industrial waste water discharge was "first kinds city< second kinds city<third kinds city< fifth kinds city<fourth kinds city". The balance points of fifth city are instability with a decrease trend to be to lower that of the third city.②The relationship between industrial SO2 discharge and economy was in an obvious stage of "inverted U" without balance.stage. The GDP turning points of industrial SO2 discharge was in an order of "first kinds city< second kinds city<third kinds city(?)fifth kinds city<fourth kinds city"③There was no significance "inverted U" relationship between the industrial soot and GDP as the industrial soot discharge decline slowly during the study period. As the abatement were in high level (about 95%), the discharge only increase 2.5% even if the industrial soot generation increase 50%,. Thus, the relationship between industrial soot discharge and GDP were in the stage of balance. The balance points of industrial soot discharge were in the sequence of "first kinds city< second kinds city< fifth kinds city <third kinds city<fourth kinds city"④The relationship between industrial dust discharge and GDP were in the stage of decline. The abatement rate of industrial dust was varied in the range of 70% to 95%. If the abatement rate could be stable at 95%, the discharge of industrial dust would be forward to a balance.(4) Based on the empirical study of the relationship between industrial department pollutants and economy, some results could be obtained as follows:①The discharge of industrial waste water for every industrial departments declined to a horizontal line. The relationship between the industrial waste water discharge in every industrial departments and GDP were in stages of decline at first and in balance later. Once the GDP was beyond 20,000 billion Yuan, the second industrial waste water discharge has a trend of slow increase②The relationship between the first and second industrial SO2 discharge and GDP were in shape of "inverted If in the period of balance of EKC. Whereas, the third industrial SO2 discharge declined to a horizontal line with the GDP growth. It should include the stage of decline and balance of EKC.③The relationship between industrial soot and GDP were in the stage of balance of EKC. The first and third kind industrial department presented unusual value, when GDP was 15,000 billion Yuan. The industrial dusts have the similar situation with industrial soot.④The relationship between the industrial solid discharge in first and second kind industrial department and GDP were in stage of decline of EKC, while in third kind industrial department was in the stage of balance.(5) The results of urban-industrial plan showed that the reduction of industrial pollutant discharge could not be realized by adjusting the industrial production in 31-city. In the model of pollution control priority, the national industrial output may increase 1.66% by the adjustment of industrial production. The industrial outputs of first, second, third, and fifth kind city could increase by 30.58%,30.99%,24.94%, and 22.52%, respectively, while the industrial outputs of the fourth kind city would decline by 41.82%. Moreover, all the industrial pollutant discharge could decline, but industrial dust discharge could remain unchanged.In decision-making process, if the minimum growth rate of industrial output was choosen, the industrial discharge of waste water, SO2, soot, and solid could be reduced by 21.47%,2.63%,6.69%, and 10.23%, respectively, while the industrial discharge of dust would increase by 12.46%; If the maximum growth rate of industrial output was chosen, the industrial discharge of SO2, soot, dust, and solid would increase by 15.68%,11.09%, 33.52%, and 7.15%, respectively, while he industrial discharge of waste water would reduce by 7.20%.(6) Industry industrial planning results showed that the discharge of industrial waste water, SO2, soot, dust, and solid were 944,768,000 Tons,13,555,500 Tons,4,063,800 Tons, 712,200Tons, and 4,661,500Tons, respectively, when the value of first industry, second industry, and third industry were adjusted to 11,396.454 billion Yuan,45,293.374 billion Yuan, and 392.646 billion Yuan, respectively. |
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