The Study On Grain Overall Production Capacity Of Gansu Province

The level of grain overall production capacity relate to the food security problems of our country, while the assessment of the grain overall production capacity is the basis of the study of it. To protect and improve the grain overall production capacity and to ensure the food security of our county is an important goal of macroeconomic control of grain circulation system reform. Gansu Province as a natural condition complex and diverse, ecological environment fragile ,province, the agricultural infrastructure is weak, social and economic development is relatively backward and rural poverty is more serious. As a major grain production area of the northwest region, the total grain output in 2009 is 9.062 million tons reaching to the highest level, but Gansu Province as a typical dry farming province, food production has been seriously affected by many factors, how to improve grain production capacity of Gansu Province is the focus of this paper.This paper analyze the food production of Gansu Province based on the three indicators through 1985 to 2009,including total grain output, yield per unit of area, and the grain yield per capita. Then using comparison analysis through analyzing Gansu province and the national's per hectare grain yield and food per capita and analyzing the different areas of Gansu province by per hectare grain yield and food per capita. Then concluded that grain overall production capacity of Gansu province is low, and the different parts of Gansu province grain overall production ability is difference. And use gray correlation analysis method to analyze the influencing factors which influence the grain overall production capacity of Gansu Province, and can be concluded that the main factors which influence grain overall production ability of Gansu Province were summarized as land use status, the agricultural production conditions, natural disasters, price and policy factors, among them, the most important factor which affect the effect of grain overall productivity of Gansu province is the land utilization condition, the main factor which affect the effect of grain overall productivity of Gansu Province is agricultural production conditions, and it is also an important starting point and the breakthrough to improve the comprehensive grain production ability. The natural disasters including water, hail are the most basic constraint factors which affect comprehensive grain productivity in Gansu Province.And according to the specific circumstances we draw the corresponding policy recommendations: we can greatly improve the level of productivity in Gansu province according to relying on technological progress, increasing the introduction of fine varieties, intensifying agricultural infrastructure construction, enhancing the ability to withstand natural disasters, improving the ways of soil utilization, breaking the constraint of soil and water resources, the strengthening of the government's support for the implementation of policy implementation, improving the level of mechanization, reasonable and balanced fertilization, improving the index of crop, the increase of efficient irrigation area. And in current agricultural production conditions, stable prices of agricultural production, strengthen water conservancy facilities, stable grain sown area, increasing the technology content and technology investment and developing multiple cropping system of intercropping are the main direction to improve grain production capacity. This paper use the regression analysis to predict the future of the grain overall production capacity in Gansu Province and conclude that there is a large growth potential of the overall grain production capacity in Gansu Province.