Evaluation Of The Intensive Use And Scenario Prediction Of Rural Residential Land

In recent years, the land resources management discipline focused on the research on urban land and agricultural land, the lack of study for rural residential areas are insufficient in depth and the breadth, this paper discusses the realistic problems in land intensive use, theoretically guides rural residential areas by the use of land for extensive pattern to move in the direction of the intensive. It is not only rich in intensive land use research content, but also improved the study theory system.The author builds up his theory on the basis of up-to-date the ories and the advanced experiment on rural residential area and efficient land utilization. In this essay, I will base on land scarity theory, location theory, sustainable development theory, land reward law theory and balanced rural and urban theory and aim at the present rural residential areas and analyze the effecting factors, existed problems efficient utilization of rural residential area. I will also predict the future residential areas under the influence of uncertainty factors based on the situation analysis theory, and put forward to intensive degree countermeasures and suggestions.In this article, Siping city is selected as the research sample. Based on the current land utilizing situation, we will set up an evaluation system, which consists of 3 project hierarchies with 8 evaluation indexes. Using this system, we will decide the weight of each index by using the AHP analysis, which will then be processed in the dimensionless treatment in order to calculate the total evaluating value. The influence of significant factors set two different scenarios, benchmark situation and development priority scene. Prediction 2015 and 2020 intensive use level and rural residential areas carries on the analysis comparison.Research results show that Tiexi is the highest and Gongzhuling is the lowest in intensive utilization of the rural residential areas in 2009. under the three situations, intensive use level of the benchmark situation is high and Tiexi and Yitong country's intensive use level of the rural residential is enhanced, the rest of the town is to reduce intensivise extent.This paper consists of eight parts:The first part is the introduction part, mainly including the research background, the research purpose and meaning, research status from domestic and abroad, research contents and methods, technical route and possible innovation and deficiencies.The second part is the conceptual determine, it consists of the rural residential areas and land intensive use of rural residential areas and some theories related to the intensive utilization of rural residential areas, which enhances directionality and pertinence.The third part explores the influencing factors on intensive use of rural residential areas. this paper firstly analyzes the characteristics of the rural residential areas land and current situation and existing problems in rural residential areas,proposes the necessity of land intensive use of rural residential areas, finally come to the influence factors of land intensive use.The fourth part mainly evaluates intensive use level of rural residential areas, introduces the principle of constructing evaluation index, index selection scope and selecting method, so as to construct the index system, determining the weight, calculating the comprehensive value of intensive use.The fifth part is the situation forecast of the rural residential areas land utilization with the scenario analysis, sets up three scenarios to predict land intensive use degree of the rural residential areas.The sixth part is the empirical research, evaluating land intensive use of rural residential areas in Siping city and predicting the future of the rural residential areas for intensified use degree with the situation analysis method.The seventh part is the conclusion and proposes policy recommendations.