Analysis And Forecasting Research On The Supply And Demand Of Labor Force In Guiyang Province

Since reform and opening-up , increasing the total employed population in Guizhou Province, but slower economic growth, the labor market is not optimistic, the employment situation is becoming increasingly grim. The growth of working age population and the quickly transference from the rural labor to urban effected unemployment phenomenon, even threatened social stability and development. So, we should pay much attention to employment and unemployment. Therefore, the study of labor supply and demand situation in Guizhou is very necessary.This article based on the relevant data of " Tabulation on the 2000 Population Census of Guizhou Province", "Guizhou statistical yearbook"and" six years of Guizhou". Firstly, It through the age shift algorithm demographic and other basic methods, processed the data of "the fourth population census" and "the fifth population census"; Secondly, discrete multi-regional population development model, based on the characteristics of population development in Guizhou Province, set the parameters of model, with high, medium, low three programs from 2001 to 2050 to predict the labor supply in Guizhou Province. After the economic model used predicted the demand for labor in Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2050. Finally through comparing the labor market demand and supply in first five decades in Guizhou in 21st, it analyzed the imbalance of labor market supply and demand produced unbalanced analysis of the causes, and put forward some policy recommendations.The innovation of this article lies in: First, it calculated the rural and urban life tables in Guizhou, and evaluated the data of false positives between" the fourth population census" and " the fifth population census" .Second, in order to objectively reflect the total fertility rate changes, it combined with the logistic model. Three, it used life table theory, discrete multi-regional population development model, at high, medium and low program for predicting the total population and the population age structure from 2001 to 2050 in Guizhou Province. Four, it used the relations between labor demand and economic growth when predicting the labor demand in order to explore relations between labor supply and demand in Guizhou Province.Research results show that: At present, the proportion of the total population of working age is higher Guizhou Province, regardless of high, medium, low program, since 2020, the number of working-age population will decrease, and appear working age population ageing phenomenon; Labor demand present growth trend; Guizhou province labor shortage will gradually appear; just ten years time, the labor market will be quickly converted from demand outstrips supply for vice versa. The labor imbalance is mainly affected by the fertility rate, speed of economic development, urbanization and vocational training education factors and so on. Solving the contradiction between supply and demand in Guizhou Province may proceed from birth policy, government, education construction and macroeconomic regulation and so on.