Labor Shortage Or Surplus?

This paper uses current populations and employment data in China to analyze the labor supply and labor demand in the labor market,and also uses various methods including population and industrial structure forecasting methods and many others to forecast labor supply and labor demand from 2014 to 2035 in China.The results show that,the oversupply in the labor market will last for quite some time from now on.China still has large number of unemployment population,and has not fall into a new era of labor shortage.In the long run,although the number of unemployment population is still large,it does have a reduced tendency year by year.So in the future,the pressure on unemployment will also be reduced.The cause of so-called "the scarcity of peasant workers" is the results of some historic factors,institutional factors,and the structural supply-demand contraction in labor market.It doesn't mean the real labor shortage.Meanwhile,stand on the realities of the country,Lewis model doesn't work in China,the blind use of this model will lead to unconvincing conclusion.So,nowadays,we should focus on how to solve the tough unemployment problems.To solve this problem,we give some suggestion to ease the unemployment pressure.