The Optimization Of Multi-project Development In Real-estate Based On Dynamic Programming

The further improvement of real estate market will lead developers to change from a single project-developer to a city operator, the development of large-scale project or multi-projects will be an important mode. This paper is to solve the optimization of multi-project development, the basic thinking roadmap is to convert the multi-project optimization to multi-stage decision and use the theory of dynamic programming to get the optimal strategy. The simple steps can be summed up as follows:(1) Doing the project value analysis, looking for project value mining points, get the Ideal development plan of project and make alternative development plans for a project from different angles;(2) Building the evaluation system of project development plan and evaluate all the alternative development plans;(3) Building dynamic programming model to simulate multi-stage decision, study the interaction among projects and adjust the optimal policy according to the external and internal changes of projects.First, the decision progress of a single project development can be summed up to three steps:(1)do the comprehensive analysis of project development environment and the characteristics of the project itself; (2)looking for project value mining points; (3)make ideal development plan. In the practical development, the internal and external environment cannot be agree to the ideal development plan, so there should do some adjustment direct at all kinds of changes and there will not be only one plan for a project.Second, on the base of alternative development plans of all projects, it was a critical step to evaluate all plans. Because of project development scheme involves many factors, quantitative factors and qualitative factors included, this paper, from the point of view of the comprehensive consideration of three stakeholders:the developers, consumers and management department, selected the main evaluation index according to the related theory of analytic hierarchy process (AHP).Third, to build practical dynamic programming model on the basis of the first two steps to simulate the decision process is the key step. The empirical studies in the paper prove the dynamic programming model can not only effectively solve the multi-project development and get the optimal sequence, but also can make the adjustment according to actual conditions. In the whole, the model has practical value.This article USES the study method based on the system theory is the combination of the qualitative research and the qualitative analysis. This method embodied particularly outstanding in project value analysis, project value mining and evaluation of project development scheme. The project development scheme evaluation is based on both the traditional evaluation theory and the related theory of fuzzy mathematics, just as analytic hierarchy process, grey correlation analysis and so on. Finally, this paper established dynamic programming optimization decision model is not only the category of operations research optimization theory, but also multi-project management theory category. As a cross-disciplinary research point, this paper will be a good application of operations research theory in the real estate multi-projects development.