The Empirical Study On The Low-carbon Economy And Industrial Development In Liaoning Province

In recent years, Global Climate Change happens frequently, such as continuing earthquake, raging typhoon, violent storm, heavy rain, blizzard and drought. Absolutely, Climate Change has already threatened our daily life. On this background, some country are actively looking for balanced development model between economic growth and natural environment——Low-carbon Economy, which is regarded to be the best way to interpret the idea, for which gets the governments and international communities recognize. The characteristics of low power, low pollution and low emission's economy become to be a theme of the times and a main direction of the development.China is the world's second largest carbon emission country, who has committed to reduce carbon emission per unit of GDP in 2020 to 2005 40-45%, and pay attentions to low carbon development model. Provincial governments is the main actors of low-carbon economy, their works make energy saving and emission reducing more effective. Liaoning as an important and old industrial place has lots of heavy-energy consuming industries, which are recognized to be the pillar of economy. The total carbon emission has increased from 2758.91mtce to 14053.88mtce between years 1971-2008, the rate is 409.4%. How to effectively curb the rapid growth of carbon emission is a significant part of achieving sustainable development in Liaoning province.In this paper, I firstly try to find the study starting points through interpreting theory of Sustainable Development, Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis, Decoupling and so on. On this base, I secondly find the best way to calculate carbon emission, gaining the data of carbon emission in Liaoning, finding energy consumption structure has little effect on carbon emission. It is carbon emission that keeping synchronous growth with energy consumption, which also fits to descript the same growing trade of GDP. Thirdly I use OLS to verify the relationship of economic growth and carbon emission——"N" curve; Be in weak decoupling state by using decoupling indicator to verify the performance of carbon emission and economic growth; further using VAR and VEC model to analysis the relationship of carbon emission and economic growth in quantitative ways in the short and long term. In the long term, carbon emission growth rate increased by 28% in one percentage of GDP growth rate, meaning decoupling coefficient is 0.28, which can confirm weak decoupling state again. In the short term, it has two characteristic, one is that the bearing of GDP and carbon emission is 0.32; the other is that when short-term fluctuations deviate from long-run equilibrium, there will be -0.51 to pull back the intensity of the non-equilibrium state. At the same time, we use Granger Causality Test to inspect the relation of two lag in variable of GDP and carbon emission, proving that GDP is the reason of carbon emission, but the latter is not the reason of the former, they are not interaction with each other. Finally I refine carbon emission in the industrial point of view. Conclusions are that secondary-industry's carbon emission is the largest, tertiary-industry's carbon emission is larger, primary industry's carbon emission is least. Among of all kinds of industry, the second industrial manufacturing, the production and supply of power, gas and water, mining, and other industrial carbon emission are the maximum. Relying on certain indexes divided those industries into pillar ones and new leading ones, the carbon emission of pillar ones is larger than the new leading ones. Because Black Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing and other pillar industry not only have an advantage in national location quotient, but also have a strong role in the industrial connection and technology diffusion, it is crucial to implement energy conservation of them. Transportation, Warehousing, Postal Service and Wholesale, Retailing, Accommodation and Restaurants are pillar industries of tertiary-industry, while Financial and Real Estate are the new leading industries of tertiary-industry. The largest amount of carbon emission is the Transportation, Warehousing and Postal Service, which is major to reduce carbon emission. The analytical procedure of the primary industry is different from the above two kinds of industry, Establish the agricultural carbon evaluation system, from agriculture-based production conditions, production potential and the level of renewable resources in these three indexes to evaluate the status of low-carbon agriculture, Finding that Liaoning's carbon emission of agriculture is living in high position of the country, has certain advantages..According to above conclusions, I give the following recommendations:(1) Optimize the industrial structure by increasing the proportion of tertiary-industry to promote energy structure adjustment and improve energy efficiency. (2) Emphasis on the development of secondary industrial carbon, using economic and administrative measures to integrate high carbon emission of pillar industries, mainly in energy-save way, vigorously support the development of the new leading industries, based mainly on technological innovation. (3) Promote low-carbon of tertiary-industry, especially accelerating technological transformation and introducing a new braking system. (4) Enhance carbon sequestration capacity of agriculture and develop organic, ecological, recycling and green low-carbon agriculture. (5) Develop new low-carbon services, improving the business center of Dalian carbon emissions trading system, made where to become the hub of climate change of the northeast in order to provide the platform for exchanging public, open and free information. (6) Improve overall industries'energy efficiency, develop and utilize new energy sources.