| China's trade surplus has increased these years, the promotion of import trade to the development of domestic economy is more important, and that requires resources with higher quality. China is a country with a large population and big energy consumption, and coal is the main form, both of that arose big pressure to either the accommodation of recourses or environment. Since the import trade has some effect on energy consumption, to promote the standard of overall economy and save energy, we need to change the way of foreign imports.This article analyses the effect of import trade on China's energy, set up a VAR model with the data of general value of import, processing, total import in import trade and coal, petroleum, gas, total consumption in energy consumption from 1982 to 2008. Firstly, clarity the background and significance of this research and summarize the actuality at home and abroad; Secondly, analyze in detail the status quo of import trade, energy consumption and its influence; Thirdly, test the advancement of import trade to energy consumption with mechanism model, result shows that these two interwork on each other, and the way of import cargoes arise the consumption of energy even though the progress of technology impelled the saving of consumption, but still no definite contribution. Fourthly, examine the demonstration of import trade and energy consumption with the method in econometrics like testing root of unity, cointegration test, error correction and analysis consequences of long-term and short-term, result shows that the import trade has significant effect on energy consumption, energy consumption restrict the development of import trade to a certain extent, that means, these two form a Granger causality, we can see from the pulse diagram the effect is not so remarkable in a short term, but there is a constantly influence; Finally, arise some suggestion on adjusting the way of import trade to save energy and reduce consumption. |
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