A Research On The Determinants Of Private Vehicle Ownership Based On Innovation Diffusion Theory

In2010,the production and sales quantity of auto vehicle in China get the first placein the world for the second time, and China has become the world's largest automotiveconsumer market.As a pillar industry of China's national economy, the rapiddevelopment of the automobile industry not only promote the development of theupstream and downstream industry such as steel, rubber, finance, insurance and so on,playing a leading role to promote rapid economic development, but also played a hugerole in promoting the technological progress of China's industries. But based on theglobal value chain perspective, China's automobile industry is still mainly in the lowerend of the value chain, which is mainly caused by the auto companies the capability ofindependent innovation is not enough. Therefore, the "12th Five-Year" plan willenhance the capability of independent innovation, to grasp the key core technology,energy saving on the first place. Private car as the main force of China's automobileindustry development, the ownership is increasing, the negative effects of trafficcongestion, environmental pollution and energy crisis on society. Research on theimpact factors of private car ownership is important for the relevant departments tomake arrangements for the construction of road traffic and energy planning.Since the introduction of Technological innovation diffusion model used in themarket of innovative products' market in1960s, it attracted wide attention fromscholars. Although there are many scholars for the proliferation of car ownership inChina, but mostly just to predict the next few years' ownership, or simple linearregression method factor to its ownership, and did not consider China provinces andcities or regions of different levels of development of its impact. In this paper, we usethe data of China's31provinces and cities, estimating the relative diffusion rate b withthe nonlinear least squares method, then regressing the impact factors and b to get theresults.This article describes the development as well as the problems of the automotivemarket at home and abroad, China's auto market are analyzed in detail. According withdomestic and international researches,the diffusion of private vehicle ownership in China in line with the traditional "S" shaped diffusion curve.Therefore,we use theinnovation diffusion model to study the determinants of private vehicle ownership inChina's31provinces or regions.On the view of the randomness of the innovationdiffusion model selected, the root mean square error values and error mean absoluteratio of these two indicators, from1996to2010private car ownership data weresubstituted into the Logistic model and Gompertz model fitting, because Logistic modelhas a smaller error value, and therefore chosen as the most suitable for the diffusionmodel of the development of private cars in China. Furthermore, to the private car tomaintain the amount of influence factors on behalf of into the expansion of the Logisticmodel to the empirical research, empirical results show that: residents of disposableincome and the city of the level of a significant role in promoting the private car tomaintain the amount of the diffusion rate; while the public transport situationsubstitution between the private car; highway mileage because of its speed ofdevelopment can not keep up the growth rate of private car, the proliferation of privatecars has played an impediment; steel production for the proliferation of private cars isnot significant. Finally, through the problems for China's auto industry and influencingfactors of the empirical results, we provide some policy recommendations to therelevant administrative departments.