Study On Prevention Of Risk In International Energy Cooperation

As the important strategic resources to ensure security of economic and politics, energy has been drawn fully attention by more and more countries over the world. Our country of energy scarcity needs a lot of energy supply with the rapid development of economy, so energy security is the basis of ensuring sustainable development of economy. In the background of economic globalization and integration, with the growing trend of interconnect and interdependent between energy producers and consumers, as characters of International Energy Security, reciprocity, symbiosis and cooperative appear increasingly. It is a trend to carry out cooperation and participate in the international competition to develop the industry of each country.In International Energy Cooperation, the economic environment, political environment, management terms are more complicated than in the domestic areas, while there are a great deal of advantages from participating in International Energy Cooperation, there are a lot of risk, which including not only general risk from opportunism, trust mechanisms, but also special risk because Energy as a commodity has the nature of political, economic and diplomatic. Therefore it is an important problem for cooperative behavior agents to strengthen risk prediction and preventionThe paper makes a reexamination of International Energy Cooperation from a new perspective, defines explicitly the concept of International Energy Cooperation and its risk by systematic analysis, and divides the risk factors by using clustering analysis, In addition, it establishes a complete relatively assessment system. Then it designs risk assessment index system and builds a risk assessment model on Analytical Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Mathematics methods to solve the problem of quantitative analysis with estimating and measuring risk. Finally takes China-Japan-Russia Energy Cooperation for instance, analyzing the probability and degree of each type of risk, and putting forward some rational and feasible advice. The paper provides the method system on risk analysis, warning and control for International Energy Cooperation, and aims to form a complete risk management system including three aspects of advance, going on, afterwards. It has a certain theory significance and practice value in improving feasibility of our risk management in International Energy Cooperation.