Study On Transport Volume Forecasting And Trains Operation Plan Of Railway And Waterway Combined Container Transport

Being an important part of worldwide logistics developing direction and international multimode transport, railway and waterway combined container transport has a lot advantages. In recently years, railway and waterway combined container transport develops rapidly but is not applied broadly because of lack of traffic capacity, advanced equipments or unified technique standard. In2011, Agreement on Development of Cooperation for Railway and Waterway Combined Transport was signed between Ministry of Railways and Ministry of Transportation, which focuses on developing railway and waterway combined container transport. Therefore, under the support of macropolicy, the study on volume forecasting and trains operation plan for railway and waterway combined container transport are meaningful, not only improving service quality of railway container transport, but also satisfying economic and social development demand.Based on the analysis on current situation and experience of domestic and overseas railway and waterway combined container transport development, railway and waterway combined container transport market is investigated, flow volume and directions of main freight categories are analyzed, arrival and departure volume and exchange volume are designed to be forecasted by grey model, regression analysis model, combined model and current pattern method. And travelling path, organization form and makeup of railway and waterway combined container transport of trains are researched. Taking Lianyungang-Alashankou corridor as an example, the arrival and departure volume and exchange volume of main container stations are forecasted from2013to2015. Then, the railway and waterway combined container transport operation plans of trains in2013and2015are designed. Finally, some measures for realizing this plan are put forward.