Research On Passenger Volume Forecast And Transport Capacity Configuration In The Process Of The Urban And Rural Passenger Transportation Integration

With the continuous advance of urbanization process, the development idea of urban and rural integration is deepen day by day. Urban and rural passenger transportation integration not only can effectively connect the distance and break the estrangement between urban and rural, but also stimulate the economy intercourse so as to create a good foundation for urban and rural integration. Thus, it meaningful for promoting the common development between urban and rural to make out a rational urban and rural passenger transportation plan, put up a efficient passenger transportation network, and achieve integrated service.Firstly, this paper analyzed the significance of integrated planning of urban and rural passenger transport based on the historical background of the urban and rural passenger transport integration concept, expatiated the correlative theory and status at home and abroad.Then, this paper annotated the basic connotation of urban and rural passenger transportation, parsd its essence and characters, explored its generating mechanism and put forward its goals and demands. This paper analyzed the basic composing factor of the urban and rural passenger transportation system, and deployed research on the factors of roads, management individual and passenger flow.Thirdly, the paper discussed the forecast of passenger volume, after analyzing the affecting factor, ascertaining the forecast principle and contrasting the existing forecast measures, a new passenger volume forecast method was proposed:grey prediction generated a ratio sequence from predictive value vs history value, divided the ratios into several states, then constructd state shift matrix, with it the state shift vector of the prediction year could be calculated, meanwhile the average values of corresponding states could be calculated by utilizing normal fitting and the definite integral middle value theorem, then integrated the history value, the predictive value could be work out, so the forecast process was done.Fourthly, based on the above research, this paper researched on the network layout and transport capacity configuration, established a model for network layout with quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, put forward an adjustment scheme of route transport and a standard of the departure frequency and fitting out vehicle volume of the urban and rural bus.At last, this paper introduce the actual situation of XiangXiang to illustrate how to carry out network layout and transport capacity configuration in practice.