Research On The Dynamic Variation Of Area Agricultural Drought Adaptability

The research, which about agricultural drought vulnerability/recoverage/risk andadaptive, is an important component of comprehensive management on disaster. Study aboutdrought adaptability is of value. Xingtai,(no matter natural geographical environment,agricultural ecological environment and ecological agriculture areas) as a typical research area,can represent the whole northern of China, which especially influenced by drought. The studyon adaptive of agricultural drought in Xingtai can make a contribution for improving the useefficiency of water resources, ensuring the sustainable development of agro-ecosystems andpromoting the harmony between human and nature.Based on the data (statistical yearbook data, on-the-spot investigation data, publisheddata network) about Xingtai from1995-2009,17administrative unit database be constructed.Agricultural drought adaptability evaluation index system and evaluation model was set up by17indexes, which selected from factors (drought strength, agricultural production, livingconditions, and the agricultural human resources, disaster relief) that can influence theadaptability of agricultural drought. Three typical drought years were selected by the variationof agricultural drought disaster area. This research made a comprehensive evaluation,fromspace and time, on adaptability of agricultural drought of Xingtai from1995-2009and thethree typical years, based on the evaluation model. The results are:(1) Agricultural drought adaptability evaluation index system and evaluation model,which were set up on the basis of the drought strength, agricultural production, livingconditions, and the agricultural human resources, disaster relief and other aspect, can make awhole evaluation about the adaptability of agricultural drought of Xingtai.(2) From the time scale, adaptive indices of Xingtai agricultural drought showed aincreasing trend. During the period of1995-2003, the adaptive indices are lower than thecalendar year average except2000, and there is a lowest (0.17) in1995; The adaptive indices,from2004to2009, are higher than the calendar year average, and there is a highest (0.49) in2009. The growth rate of adaptive index showed a fluctuated increasing, there occurred ahighest growth rate in1995, is0.33%, then decreased to0in1999, and increased to0.23%, and re-decreased to-0.14%. The adaptive composite index is biggest in central part of Xingtai,the second is western and then is the eastern.(3) From the spatial scale, the average adaptive index in the east, middle and west ofXingtai over the years, demonstrated that middle＞west＞east. All of the adaptability index ofThree typical drought year (1997,2002, and2006) showed that middle＞west＞east. In1997,the adaptability index was low in most counties of Xingtai. The ability to adapt to droughtwas low. The adaptability index was mainly in the0.25-0.3and＜0.25, in all14counties,mainly distributed in the Midwest and the east side of eastern. However, the adaptabilityindex showed the increasing trend at most counties in2002, The overall city’s ability to adaptto increased. The adaptability index was mainly in0.3-0.35and0.25-0.3, in all10counties,mainly distributed in the Midwest and the east side of eastern too. At the same time many ofthe county of adaptability index was in0.25-0.3as well, mainly distributed in the west side ofeastern. The adaptability index showed upward trend overall city, in2006. Ability to adapt todrought raised significantly. The adaptability index was＞0.35, in all11counties, mainlydistributed in middle and west, between0.25-0.3, in all5counties, mainly distributed in thewest side of eastern. There are4levels of agricultural drought adaptability index in Xingtaiarea: higher/high/low/lower level. The higher area contained Ningjin/Longrao/Shahe andXingtai County; The high area contained Ren county/Nanhe and Nangong/Linxi; The lowarea contained Xinhe/Wei county/Julu/Pingxiang and Lincheng/NeiQiu; Guangzong,belonging to the lower area. So, there showed a highest level in central area, then is theeastern area, the lowest is the western.(4) Agricultural drought monitoring model was set up for monitoring adaptability factor.Followed the rule of “Let It be”, regional agricultural drought adaptive development modelwas established: the east "agriculture-livestock" mixed farming mode, central"agriculture-work together" industrialization and the agriculture mode"Lin-agriculture-animal husbandry interplanting" eco-agriculture model, in order to enhanceregional agricultural drought adaptability.