| The vulnerability is the most important component of regional disaster risk, and the cropvulnerability infects the resistance capacity to the disaster in the region, also infects the cropproduction directly. Northwestern Liaoning Province has the most wide maize acreage, at thesame time, it is also the most serious maize drought disaster affected area. Thus, studying onmaize drought vulnerability in northwestern Liaoning Province has great significance onsolving regional food production and poverty. Based on the IPCC’s definition of vulnerabilityin the context of climate change, taking maize drought disaster risk in Northwestern LiaoningProvince as the object of study, from the view of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability,17indexes related to crop physiological, meteorological and socio-economic factors wereselected, comprehensively combined meteorological climatology, physical geography, disasterscience, crop ecology and other multi-disciplinary theories and methods and the vulnerabilityindexes of maize drought were calculated using the entropy method and weightingcomprehensive evaluation method, then the assessment model of maize drought vulnerabilitywas established. Using1999-2006historical disaster data, the spatial distribution law of maizedrought vulnerability in northwestern Liaoning Province was studied. Through the optimumpartition method, the regional maize drought vulnerability index was divided into five levels.Four typical drought years(1999、2000、2001、2006) in Northeastern Liaoning Province werechosen to verify and test the applicability of the model, and divided the maize drought indexesinto5grades, thus the vulnerability zoning maps of maize drought in typical drought yearswere drawn using GIS technology. The results showed that the areas with high level ofvulnerability were mainly located in Fuxin, Chaoyang, Huludao counties, while the rate ofareas with high level of vulnerability displayed a temporal regular pattern:2006>1999>2001>2000; The level of vulnerability in2006was the highest, with the mostextensive impact area, due to the precipitation anomaly in the growing season. The higherlevel of the region maize drought vulnerability always causes a higher risk, which definitelyleads to a greater loss. Through the regression analysis of the maize drought vulnerabilityindexes in the four typical drought years and the rate of maize yield loss,it was found that thetwo had a basic agreement and passed the F significant test at the level of α=0.05,whichindicated that it was reasonable to evaluate and predict the region maize drought vulnerabilityby using this model. The model can be used to evaluate and predict maize droughtvulnerability, drought disaster risk and the maize yield losses caused by drought. The resultsof this study can provide a basis for the local agricultural drought risk assessment and earlywarning, and provide a scientific basis and technical support for the disaster prevention of maize production, rational distribution, optimizing irrigation, changing the tillage andcropping patterns, preparation plans for drought resistance, disaster mitigation planning andinsurance. |
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