The Research On The Policing Strategy

China is in a transitional period of deepening reform today,which is characterized by theintricacy of the human society and increasing frequency of contradiction. Besides,theuncertainty of the future is more significant.As a State organs aimed to safeguarde Statesecurity and maintain public order, the police organization is closely linked to the countrydevelopment. The meaning of the policing strategy is to get a better grasp of the situation andface the future. The Chinese society is now both in a golden period of development andsimultaneously in a period of contradiction. Police department must stand on a high of servingeconomic growth and social progress and take a long view of promoting social harmony andstability, formulate the scientific and effective policing plan, because only then can policesafeguarded State security and maintain public order, protect citizens’ personal safety andfreedom and their legal property, protect public property and prevent and punish criminalactivities in the important development time of completely constructing well-to-do society inthe earlier twenty years of21century.However, the traditional strategic national policing plan, which is based on the rationaltheory, is difficult to adapt to the complex and changing social environment in the future. So,the article attempts to introduce the scenario planning and discuss how to design a moreeffective policing plan by using scenario analysis, so as to enable the police to safeguard thecountry’s long-term stability, serve economic growth and social progress and safeguardpeople’s enjoying a good and prosperous life under the new historical circumstances. The textof this paper is divided into four parts, approximately30,000characters.The first part is an outline of basic meaning of policing strategy. In the first, the textintroduces the significance of policing strategy. Next the system frame of policing plan isproposed in three ways: leadership, position and strategic management. And then point outthe mission of the policing strategy is to adapt the change of policing environments, promotethe development of police organization and implement policing targets efficiently. Lastly thetext discusses the formation of policing strategy, which has four steps: clarifying the mission、vision and goal, outer environment analysis, organizational analysis and choose the beststrategic project. The second part argues the difficulties in the progress of setting strategy at present. Thethesis discusses from four aspects: the realities of policing strategy, the trouble encounteredby the police department designing the policing plan, the opportunities and challenges facedby our country’s policing strategy. After, the author points out the necessity and feasibilitiesof applying scenario planning to the establishment of policing strategy.The third section introduces the basic theories of scenario planning. As a new mind ofstrategic management, scenario planning has four main basic principles: the uncertainty ofouter environment, the variability in the future, the multidimensional of predict results and thehypotheses of time period. There are different opinions about the procedure of scenarioplanning. On the basis of comparative analyzing, this paper integrates different views to someextent. The standpoint of this section is the advantages of using scenario planning inestablishing policing strategy. Of course, the article also explains the limits of the scenarioplanning and questions should been noticed in using it.The fourth part argues the application of scenario planning in policing strategy, which isthe core of this writing. The first step is to illustrate the policing idea; this paper will discuss itfrom two aspects: the system structure of policing idea and the illustration process. Thesecond step is to analyze the uncertainty of policing environment, which includes thecomplexity of policing environment and recognition and classifying of influencing factors.The third step is a gradual progress composed by organizational learning、scenario developingand scenario research. The last step is choosing the strategic project under the scenario, whichincluding scenario classifying and strategic project selecting.