The Study And Application On Real Estate Market Early-warning Model Of Xi’an

Real estate industry is viewed as the most important industry of the nation, as wellas a significant livelihood project, whose development is the focus all the time. As weall know, it shows periodic fluctuations in the development of real estate industry. Inorder to avoid great fluctuations and keep smooth and healthy development of theindustry, many measures should be adopted to help this. In view of this, Xi’an RealEstate Bureau promptly encourages people to establish real estate early warningsystem. Therefore, scientific and accurate early warning system should be establishedcombing with Xi’an reality in order to provide valuable preferences for policy makers,such as issuing real estate measures, which would help the healthy development of realestate industry.At first, Macro-economy and real estate periodic fluctuation theory are introducedin the paper, whose formulation process is decomposed on the level of classicaleconomics. Such analysis could we know the truth that there is inherent logics anddisciplines in real estate development. Secondly, basic conceptions of real estatewarning are formulated in the paper. On the basis of reading large sum of relativereferences on real estate warning, warning methods、predicting methods and warningindex system are summarized in detail. Based on the reference to other study, themethod of combined with improved method of booming cycle early warning anddynamic quantitative economics model is used to analyze Xi’an real estate market. Inview of index system, selection of appropriate index system models should beseriously considered. Because different models would request different index system,Xi’an real estate market warning index system is determined on the thorough acknowledgement of above warning models. In view of predicting methods, thoroughtheories and operating methods of seasonal adjustment and vector error correctionmodels are offered in the paper.Combined method of improved booming cycle early warning and dynamicquantitative economics not only enable us grasp the developing circumstances andfuture trend as a whole of real estate market, but also could analyze the price ofcommodity housing from single perspective. We can find that there are three periodicfluctuations of Xi’an real estate market from February in2008to December in2011,and such market would go through shrink in2012after shrink and depression in2011.At the same time, there is great fluctuation in2011of commodity housing pricethrough price analysis, which deviate the long balance status of other indicators, andthe price would probably rise in2012. Combing with model simulation and predictingresults, relevant policies and suggestions are offered in the paper. So, we should takemeasures to avoid the real estate market entering into overheating development againas well as great fluctuations in price, otherwise, which would affect the healthydevelopment of national economy.Through case analysis, we could find that combined method of improvedbooming cycle early warning and dynamic quantitative economics could bettersimulate and predict Xi’an real estate development, which offer effective references toreal estate market warning and predicting theoretically and practically.