Virtual Shipping Logistics Alliance Risk Early Warning Research

With the development of economic globalization, the economic relation between the enterprises went to a new stage which was mutual penetration, horizontal and benefit-sharing. The economy of china was accelerating the integration with the world economy, the export-oriented economy was the character of Chinese economy, China became the largest exporter and the second largest importer of the world in2011.The huge volume of import and export trade has brought a massive amount of demand for international shipping and logistics services. However, facing the challenge of foreign shipping giant, many small and medium shipping companies who was generally weak and lack of experience has to choose to create a virtual shipping logistics alliance in order to share the advantages and risks. Several companies shared benefit and risks in alliance, but it did not mean that risk is reduced. On the contrary, due to the complexity of the virtual enterprise, risk existed in the phase of formation, operation and dissolution. The imperfections of the market and legal environment, asymmetric information and other factors increased the chance of distrust each other and broke the rule, at the same time, the probability of risk got higher, and the slightest mistake could break the alliance and bring irreparable damage to the member companies.Therefore, it was important to early warn and control risk for virtual shipping alliance. Firstly, this paper started from the concept classification, and characteristics of risk of the virtual shipping alliance, combined with the results of previous research and interviews with experts, classified and identified of risk, indicated that external risks included general environmental risk, market risk, economic risk, internal risks included the risk of logistics capabilities and the risk of management and coordination risk. Secondly, this paper built external and internal risk early warning indicator system for virtual shipping logistics alliance,moreover, it used fuzzy AHP to build the analytic hierarchy structure model and built the virtual shipping logistics alliance risk warning comprehensive evaluation model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in order to determining the level factor weight, then it used the fuzzy comprehensive judgment the various risk factors of the members of the alliance to predict the risk situations. And then it took an example to be applied for verification. Finally, this paper discussed the risk control strategies in different level, proposed risk and control methods and measures of different classifications and stages. Particularly, this paper proposed the control and prevention measures on time risk and incentive risk which were important for risk controlling of the virtual shipping alliance.