The Analysis And Forecasting About The Labor Demand And Supply Of Gansu Province

Gansu Province is rich in labor, which makes it one of the most important labor export province in the northwestern region of China. With the economic boost and the expansion of national supported farmer policy, two problems after named"unemployment"and "lacking skilled workers" have emerged recently. It shows the contradiction between and labor quantity and labor structure.This paper has employed a method to analysis labor supply and labor requirement in Gansu province. From supply aspect, Gansu is the second largest province in Northwest of China, and the structure of population is "middle big, two heads small" which means it is mature population structure. Though labor supply is enough, a little labor burden by now, the quantity of qualified labor is gradually becoming older with time passed. Based on model analysis, this paper concludes that the summit of population will appear in2030; the population would reach29,976million at that time. Labor supply will diminish from then on. By2017, the qualified labor will reach20,6231million and then it will diminish after the summit, too. From the requirement aspect, however, Gansu province will require more and more labor because a lot of industries that previously located in the eastern part of China moved to the western part due to the industry structure optimized.Considering the increasing requirement on labor and the decreasing of qualified labor in the following years, this paper suggested that by the year of2017, an equilibrium will be reached and then lacking labor will appear. In order to deal with this problem, this paper suggest to reset reasonable population policy, adjust industry structure, educate labor, provide craft training for labor to release the contradict in labor market, and limit its impact on economic growth.