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Industry Structure Change&Influencing Factor Of Guangxi

Posted on:2013-03-14Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:S P WuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2249330371489080Subject:National Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Industrial structure is a deep mark to measure the current situation and the height of the industrial structure; it is also the most essential feature of the industrialization stage. The optimization of industrial structure is the only way to modernizing the industrial, also is the basic content of modern economic growth. Besides the industry is the dominant position of the national economy, and account for50%in the present GDP. Industrial development scale and level is an important symbol to measure a country or region’s economic strength. This paper first analyses the history and current situation of the change of the Guangxi industrial structure, based on the calculation of the change index of the overall level of industrial structure, three kinds of industrial level and industry level of subdivision industrial structure, then in-depth studies the economic effects bought by the Guangxi industrial structure change, as well as combines the endogenous factors (technology progress, structure of energy consumption) and exogenous factors (institutional change) into the framework of empirical analysis of industrial structure change influencing factors. In order to verify the research hypothesis, and put forward the corresponding policies and recommendations, thus provides specified strategies and policies for enterprises and government.This paper systematic analyses the historical condition of Guangxi industrial structure change, about the overall level, three kinds of industrial level, subdivision of industry level. And analyses in details about the overall trend, industry characteristics and regional characteristics of Guangxi industrial structure change. The results of the overall dimensions measure show that both in comparative structure changes and cumulative structural changes, the Guangxi industrial structure has achieved a great degree of optimization and upgrading. The results of three types of industry level measure show that the proportion of the representative industry accounted for the whole industry is in a stable downtrend in the industrialized initial stage; steadily slow trend in the industrialized middle stage and in an ascendant trend in the late industrialization stage. The contribution that fractionize industry make for the optimization and upgrade of the Guangxi industrial structure exists big differences in different industries and presents the unbalanced development trend. In addition, the industrial structure of Guangxi has obvious regional characteristics, material production sector is Guangxi’s main economic activities sector; appeared industrial pattern that both has second and third industrial; the industrial structure has a poor coordination and vulnerable to the external shocks; besides the industrial development is slower in middle stage of industrialization.The contribution rate that industrial structure change made to the economic growth has a difference both in time and industry, and the optimization and upgrade of the industrial structure will strengthen and increase of the second and third industry’s influence on the economy in the middle stage of the industrialization, the change of industrial structure has a more obvious structure effect on economic growth. This paper use the shift share analysis and from the structural-bonus hypotheses perspective investigates the effects that the optimization and upgrading of Guangxi industrial structure on the industry productivity growth in different time. The empirical results show that the optimization and upgrading of Guangxi industrial structure has a remarkable time difference in industry productivity growth. During1987-1992, appeared "structure negative profit" in which the static effect change accounted for9.0578%, dynamic effect accounted for16.952%, and the static effects offset by the dynamic effect,the productivity of labor effect of growth mainly comes from the industry internal growth effect, achieved75.6427%. During1992-2002, the main contribution to the labor productivity growth effect mainly came from the industrial internal growth effect and achieved257.4657%. It appeared "structure bonus" in this period, but its static effects appeared little negative effect. It indicates that labor force from low productivity of industry to the high productivity of industry may bring negative effect to labor productivity, this may because the Guangxi’s talent shortage, unable to keep up with the pace of industrial structural adjustment, and unable to meet the needs of the post. The total growth rate during2002-2008was very high and reached1334.4752%. It indicates that Guangxi’s industrial productivity promoted fast and the industrial structure upgraded quickly in recent years. At the same time, structure change on the labor productivity growth was large and reached138.5245%, in which the dynamic and static effects are showing positive contribution rate, showed that the adjustment of industrial structure of Guangxi in front years has received early effect. During this period the effect of industrial internal growth was distinct, appeared overwhelming contribution and the contribution rate was1195.9506%.This paper combines the endogenous factors (technology progress, structure of energy consumption) and exogenous factors (institutional change) into the research framework of the industrial structure change influencing factors, and use VAR model to do the empirical analysis. Technology progress, structure of energy consumption, the level of market, the degree of opening up has a strong correlation with Guangxi’s industrial structure change. Although their growth is not stable, in the long term, they will be a long-term equilibrium relationship. Technical progress, market level and the degree of opening to the outside world played a significant role in promoting the optimization and upgrading of Guangxi industry structure, while energy consumption structure played a negative role. Finally, on the basis of this study, this paper puts forward the corresponding policies and suggestions to adjust the industrial structure.
Keywords/Search Tags:industrial structure, "the structural-bonus hypotheses", technological progress, institutional change, the VAR model
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