On The Competitive Relationship Between High-speed Railway And Civil Aviation In China

High-speed rail is a modern transportation with high speed, large capacity, and low emission, whose appearance and development vary the people’s choice of travelling and satisfy more different levels of travelling requirement. Due to the somewhat overlap of target market, high-speed rail and civil aviation will obviously compete for those passengers. Therefore, studying the functional orientation and competing relationship between these two modes will benefit for re-positioning the target market and optimizing the configuration of transportation resource.This thesis analyzes domestic and abroad associated research, through the OD data of Wuhan-Guangzhou and Changsha-Guangzhou, discusses the nature of competition between high-speed rail and aviation, the factors and their weights for people to choose travelling approaches and the influence of distance and price to the competition using the actual data from high-speed rail between Wuhan and Guangzhou.The main content and conclusions are:①Analyze and comment the characteristics of high-speed rail and civil aviation, and point out that the intense competition will be in price, service, cost and developing strategies. The conclusion is that facing the impact of high-speed rail, civil aviation needs to re-position target market, adapt its structure and future developing strategies.②Analyze the major factors for passengers to choose travelling approaches, and quantize and standardize them. Build the hierarchical model by maximizing the benefits of passengers and obtain the weights of all factors for different distance. The results show that as the distance grows passengers choosing high-speed rail or civil aviation attach more importance to time cost rather than convenience.③Discuss the distribution of passengers, study the change of competition between high-speed rail and aviation for different transporting distance and build the model for the passengers’distribution. The threshold is980kilometers. High-speed rail is superior if the distance is lower than980kilometers, but this advantage is weakened as the distance increases. And civil aviation is dominant for larger distance.④Analyze and comment the price of abroad and domestic high-speed rail and civil aviation systems. Use sensitivity analysis to study the change of competition between high-speed rail and civil aviation for different tickets price. The results show that under current level of tickets price, the threshold for high-speed rail to dominate the market will enlarge120kilometers or shorten100kilometers if the price increase or decrease0.05Yuan per kilometers. And the threshold for aviation will shorten150kilometers or enlarge20kilometers if the price increase or decrease0.1Yuan per kilometers. Therefore, lowering tickets price is beneficial for high-speed rail to compete. For civil aviation, new developing strategies should be adopted such as reducing the proportion of medium-range flights and more long-range domestic flights and international flights.⑤Based on the OD data of Wuhan-Guangzhou and Changsha-Guangzhou, obtain the error of passenger sharing ratio is less than2%, So the model is proved to be reliable by combined with research findings. Analyze the impact of ticket price to the passenger sharing ratio, the results show that high-speed railway and civil aviation should improve the connection from the station-yard to downtown to enhance their competitiveness. Besides, airport should make better relevant in the flight to shorten the transfer time.