The Prediction Of Affordable Housing In Guangzhou-Based On The Improved GM (1,1) Model

The real estate is a major pillar industry of Guangzhou, played a central role in economic growth andGDP growth. Residents’ income gap is gradually increasing as the rapid increase in economic level inGuangzhou City. Not everyone has own house which the basis of livelihood security. Because the factorof high prices and trend of economic growth in the future, the lower level income earners can not pay thecost of housing in Guangzhou City. Most of the middle-income and low-income families solve the housingproblem or improve their living conditions relying on the help of the government, so the policy ofaffordable housing is the key to the realization of social equity and appropriate allocation of resources.Based on gray system prediction theory, this paper construct the improved GM (1,1) model by using theweighted average of forward difference quotient and the backward difference quotient as the grayderivative whitening value of GM (l, l). At first construct the improved GM (1,1) model of the originalsample values2003-2010of affordable housing investment, the total number of families and the averagehousing area and average house prices in Guangzhou City. Reasonable to forecast and analysis twodecades of the annual total affordable housing supply and demand from2011, the results showed that thegap of affordable housing supply and demand levels continue to increase until2016, and then Gradualdecline, Showing an inverted U-shaped curve of the gap of affordable housing supply and demand levelsfrom2011to2030.Based on the balance Predictions, paper empirical analysis the impact mechanisms of the threefactors of government, residents and the market economy on the supply of affordable housing level, findout the level of Guangzhou economic development is the main factor by using Maximum likelihoodand other method, then proposed the relative policies and measures of affordable housing, put forwardseveral Ideal mechanism for withdrawal of public rental, improve the level of affordable housing scale assoon as possible, provide utility of government social welfare in affordable housing, to achieve theequitable distribution of social resources, and promote the rapid development of Guangzhou economic andcultural harmony.Finally, Combined with research findings, the paper comment the latest affordable housingconstruction.