The Empirical Research Of Demographic Dividend And Economic Growth In Pearl River Delta

Demographic dividend, which derives from the natural changes in population, refers toadvantageous population’s age composition. The main features are that the population ofworking age is large and accounts for a large proportion of the total population. Demographicdividend could provide rich potential labor and stimulates economy development. ScienceChinese Economic Reform, Pearl River Delta has not only experienced the demographicchange but also attracted and received a great amount of immigrant productive workers. Theprocess brings affluent demographic dividend for Pearl River Delta. Therefore, how to furtherrecognize the changes and trends of population and age structure as well as to explore therelationship between demographic dividend and economic growth becomes an important andmeaningful issue.Based on working-age population proportion data of resident population and householdregister population, this research describes the change and trend of demographic dividenddevelopment. Through comparing both dividend, the results show that inflow of migrantworkers enrich the demographic dividend of whole Pearl River Delta, especially of Shenzhen,Foshan and Dongguan. In addition, this paper analyzes the effect of resident demographicdividend on economic development by applying a Cobb-Douglas production function anddecomposing labor input variable. The regression results suggest that the contribution ofresident demographic dividend on economic growth rate is7.5percent in past10years.Consider that the amount of migrant workers is large, the working-age population proportionand working participation are high, the research constructs a regression model to reflect theimpact of working-age migrant workers on economic development and the contribution rate is2.8percent.The main contributions of this research are as follows: firstly, by using national censusdata in2000and2010as well as national population survey data in2005and age-movingmethod, this paper fills the age structure default data of non-population census or survey years,enriching and improving the demographic data of Pearl River Delta. Secondly, this researchexplores the migrant demographic dividend individually by comparing demographic dividendof residents and that of household registers. Lastly, through empirical analysis, this paperquantify the contribution of demographic dividend to economic growth, providing referencesand grounds for making policy to grasp demographic dividend efficiently.