The Second Demographic Dividend And Empirical Research On Economic Growth

With the rapid economic development, China’s population age structure has also undergone a rapid transformation,There is a close relationship with population age structure and economic growth. Scholars study population expanded,basically research for a demographic dividend,the second demographic dividend although in the wave of an aging population more and more attention, related research is relatively scarce. Based on this, the paper tried on the basis of the first demographic dividend to explore the development of a secondary analysis of population structure mechanism for economic growth.Firstly,this paper used the LESLIE model to predict future population size,analyzes demographic trends of the future; Secondly,the use of least squares(OLS) estimates fixed effects(FE) estimates that the random effects(RE) estimates and generalized minimum squares(GLS) estimate the empirical relationship between these four methods to China’s savings rate and population structure, the empirical results of the population life expectancy and the aging of the population will benefit the savings rate rose conclusions; Again,the use of group human capital model,measured the level of human capital,education,and population size is mainly composed of part human capital contribution,experience and healthy capital have an important function on human capital which can not be overlooked. Finally,the use of the modified Arrow empirical model,cointegration test results indicate the existence of a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between population and economic growth dividend, workforce size, saving capital,experience, capital, education capital, health and a positive correlation between LNGDP, precautionary saving motive to bring the skills of workers, experience level,health status,etc. can improve his efficiency.The paper will also combine the conclusion with the actual situation,then given the in-depth development of the second stage of the demographic dividend countermeasures and suggestions:(1) improve the system conditions to ensure the implementation of the second demographic dividend basis;(2) broaden the financing channels and improve capital utilization efficiency savings;(3) to increase investment in human capital,and promote sustainable economic growth;(4) the relaxation of the family planning policy to ease the negative effects of population structure;(5) to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of enterprises, promote industrial restructuring.