| Export amount of China’s mechanical and electrical products stood on the top one of the world in2010and also this category exported the most in China’s export. Mechanical and electrical products trade draws the attention from the world. However, the financial crisis breaking out in2007exposed vulnerability of export thoroughly. The fluctuation of export makes us rethink profoundly the transformation of foreign trade growth pattern. Mechanical and electrical products trade is the key. The dual margins concept brought up by new-new trade theory provides us a powerful theoretical basis.The general idea of this paper is:using theoretical and empirical research methods to analyze internal microcosmic structure of export growth and influential elements and targeting on finding the effective ways to boost the export to grow fast and moderately.Based on reviewing the literatures in details, the paper finds that the related literatures can be divided into three orientations including contribution of dual margins to Trade, influencing factors and welfare of dual margins. Continuous perfecting of literatures provides other researchers a wider horizon. Research of dual margins is still in early stage in our country, so there is a great future to do the relative researching. However, the thesis thinks all the documents focus on general trade volume and limited documents emphasize on certain industry or commodity structure. So, the author tries to combine the China’s mechanical and electrical products and dual margins and provide qualitative and quantitative research from the view of new-new trade policy.This paper presents decomposition of dual margins. The author adopts methodology of Hummels and Klenow (2005) to analyze the dual margins of China’s mechanical and electrical products export. Generally, there are two aspects, the first one is dual margins of export to the world including entirety and different trade regions; the second one is dual margins of export to the ten main trade partners, furthermore decomposing the intensive margin into price and quantity margin, which focuses on the typical partners to measure the essential source of export growth accurately. Generally speaking, China’s export growth is the contribution of intensive margin. The contribution of extensive margin is comparatively smaller. Furthermore, through the analysis on different markets, Asia and Europe are the main export market, but now, the export amount has been flowing into Africa, America and Oceania markets. Besides, through the decomposing of intensive margin, we know quantity expansion is the source of China’s mechanical and electrical products export growth. It turns out that China’s pattern of mechanical and electrical products export growth is still "winning through quantity".In empirical research, the thesis gives analyses on influential elements of dual margins. We draw on Kancs(2007) theoretical framework and current status of China and use panel data to carry on the empirical research to investigate the impact mechanisms of export market scale, trade cost, productivity, multilateral resistance, FDI and economic shock on dual margins. The target of empirical research is to seek for effective ways to improve the dual margins. The result turns out that different elements have different impact mechanisms, which suggests the policy making should have different tendentiousness.According to the conclusion, the author provides policy suggestions. In general, the author thinks that the policy should be guided by coordinating the dual margins, which means boost the dual margins growth harmoniously and aim at realizing fast and moderate development. Detailed strategies include improving technical progress is essential, implementing strategy of market diversification deeply, stepping up the transition of "winning through quantity" to "winning through quality", developing the export-creation of FDI, lowering the fixed cost of export and guiding the enterprises to export to countries with high trade freedom. |
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